Oil’s Center of Gravity Shifts Toward Asia: Chart
Emerging economies will use more of the world’s oil than advanced nations next year for the first time, underscoring the growing industrial dominance of Asian consumers such as China.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows demand outside of the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development overtaking the OECD in the second quarter of 2013. Emerging nations such as China, India and Indonesia will provide all of next year’s oil-demand growth, with China alone accounting for more than 30 percent of the global expansion, according to International Energy Agency estimates released July 12.
“What we are seeing in terms of oil demand growth is a reflection of the shift in the center of gravity of economic growth,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity-markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. “So it’s no longer a question of whether emerging market oil demand will overtake that of advanced economies, but when.”
Crude consumption in the developing world will rise to an average 45.72 million barrels a day in 2013, exceeding the 45.15 million barrels a day used in OECD nations, “a trend that is unlikely to be reversed,” the Paris-based IEA said.
The geographic shift in demand reflects the closing of refineries in Europe and the U.S. as new plants are being constructed in Asia and the Middle East, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
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