OPEC’s net crude oil production capacity is expected to rise by 245,000 barrels a day next year to 35.03 million barrels a day, the International Energy Agency said, 85 percent lower than the IEA estimated in 2011.
Growth will be lower due to downward revisions to output capacity in Iran, Qatar and Algeria, the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report. The agency’s December 2011 report forecast that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would be able to pump 36.39 million barrels a day in 2013.
Iran’s production capacity will fall by about 570,000 barrels a day to an average 2.67 million barrels a day in 2013, the report said, as full sanctions by the European Union that began July 1 continue. Expected output from Qatar and Algeria has been revised downward by a combined 440,000 barrels a day.
“The outlook assumes there is no positive resolution reached in the current round of discussions and that sanctions continue through 2013” on Iran, the agency said. “The stiffer banking regulations and shipping insurance constraints will continue to lead to reduced exports and ultimately force Iranian officials to mothball oil fields, though it is impossible to predict the pace.”
Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Angola are expected to together add almost 1 million barrels a day in 2013 in net volumes, partially offsetting “sharply lower Iranian capacity,” the report said. OPEC capacity rose by about 750,000 barrels a day this year, largely reflecting a recovery in Libyan output from low 2011 levels, the agency said.
Iraq will increase capacity by 440,000 barrels a day to an average 3.38 million, according to the IEA data. Annual levels “mask a significant upward trend,” with capacity rising from 2.99 million barrels a day in the first quarter of this year to 3.74 million barrels a day by the fourth quarter of 2013.
U.A.E. capacity will gain 219,000 barrels a day to 3.03 million, Libya’s will rise to 1.6 million from 1.28 million, while Angola plans to add 143,000 barrels a day to 1.98 million.
Capacity in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is forecast to decline by 25,000 barrels a day to 11.86 million, the agency said. It will rebound in 2014 as the 900,000 barrel- a-day Manifa project ramps up, it said.
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