Michael Kurtz, Hong Kong-based head of global equity strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s largest brokerage, comments on Europe’s debt crisis. He spoke in an interview at an equity forum in Singapore.
On likelihood of Greece leaving the euro:
“We think that there is a very large chance that the Greek elections will produce a government that is committed to rejecting Greece’s obligations to its international creditors and if that happens, it will probably be forced out” of the euro bloc.
“We accept that possibility” that Greece will exit. “Let’s call it a 50/50 chance.”
On the European Central Bank:
“The issue really is: ‘Will the ECB act decisively if it does happen?’”
“European leadership has had a long time now since the initial elections on May 6 to contemplate this outcome and to prepare for the possibility of that outcome.”
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