Soybeans Climb as USDA May Forecast Smaller Global Stockpiles

Soybeans rose in Chicago before a U.S. government report that may forecast smaller global stocks of the oilseed after drought damaged crops in South America.

Inventories at the end of the 2011-12 crop year may be 55.3 million metric tons, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg shows. That compares with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March estimate of 57.3 million tons and 68.8 million tons last year. The USDA will report its latest supply and demand outlook at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

“The market is clearly geared toward what’s expected in the USDA numbers,” Michael Creed, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., said by phone from Melbourne.

Soybeans for May delivery climbed 0.5 percent to $14.3875 a bushel by 12:30 p.m. Paris time on the Chicago Board of Trade, gaining for a third session in four. The most-active contract is up 19 percent this year.

Output (US38PRBR) in Brazil, the second-largest soybean producer, may reach 66.8 million tons, smaller than the 68.5 million tons forecast by the USDA last month and last year’s record 75.5 million tons, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

Soybean shipments into leading global importer China were 4.83 million tons last month, higher than February’s 3.83 million tons and above the year-ago total of 3.51 million, customs figures showed today. In the first quarter, shipments totaled 13.33 million tons, according to the data.

The USDA will also release its latest supply and demand estimates for corn and wheat. Corn for May delivery rose 0.7 percent to $6.5375 a bushel and wheat for delivery in the same month advanced 0.6 percent to $6.4675 a bushel.

Milling wheat for November delivery traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris added 0.1 percent to 205 euros ($268.14) a ton. The spread over December-delivery wheat traded in Chicago narrowed to $16.29 a ton from $17.42 on April 5.

To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net; Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

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