Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), FedEx Corp. (FDX) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) are among 20 stocks that may be most hurt should oil supplies dwindle, said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at UBS AG.
Auto, transportation, materials, banking and diversified financial companies would be most affected by a supply disruption, Golub wrote in a note today. He cited a March 4 report from UBS oil analyst Julius Walker, who outlined scenarios related to Iran, and said Brent crude might rise to between $130 and $270 a barrel, though he expects any increase to be short-lived. Brent for April settlement rose 1.6 percent to $123.90 a barrel at 12:13 p.m. New York time today.
Brent climbed 22 percent from Oct. 4 through yesterday as West Texas Intermediate rose 38 percent, amid improved economic data and central-bank quantitative-easing and low-rate policies, Golub said in the note. Concern U.S. and European sanctions against Iran will lead to military conflict in the Persian Gulf, home to more than half the world’s oil reserves, has also boosted prices.
“These stocks should lag in the event of a supply shock,” New York-based Golub said in the note where he named the 20 stocks including Goldman and FedEx. “Energy and defensive sectors should outperform on a relative basis.”
Golub said that at current levels, energy prices support continued profit growth and are consistent with his year-end price estimate for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of 1,475, and his prediction for earnings per share of the gauge’s components of $103. The S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent to 1,351.52 today.
UBS’s Oil Supply Stock Stock List (tickers in parentheses): Alcoa Inc. (AA US) American Express Co. (AXP US) Bank of America Corp. (BAC US) CSX Corp. (CSX US) Dow Chemical Co. (DOW US) DuPont Co. (DD US) Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN US) FedEx Corp. (FDX US) Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX US) Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS US) Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT US) Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG US) International Paper Co. (IP US) International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF US) Invesco Ltd. (IVZ US) Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI US) Leucadia National Corp. (LUK US) Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS US) Union Pacific Corp. (UNP US) U.S. Steel Corp. (X US)
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