Oil Rises From One-Week Low on Economic Outlook; Heads for Monthly Advance
West Texas Intermediate futures climbed as much as 0.6 percent after sliding yesterday the most in five weeks. Industrial output in Japan and South Korea beat estimates and U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest level in a year. Oil is set for its first monthly gain in three as sanctions tighten against Iran, OPEC’s second-biggest producer.
“The U.S. economy is one of moderate growth,” Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, said in a telephone interview today. “The Iranian situation is still there and is likely to limit the extent of any downside.”
Oil for April delivery increased as much as 60 cents to $107.15 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.98 at 3:22 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday slipped $2.01, or 1.9 percent, to $106.55, the lowest close since Feb. 22 and the biggest drop since Jan. 20. Prices are 8.6 percent higher this month and up 10 percent in the past year.
Brent oil for April settlement advanced 89 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $122.44 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to New York-traded WTI was at $15.40, compared with $15 yesterday and a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.
Oil in New York has technical resistance at $114.96 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of crude’s rally from $10.35 in December 1998 to a record high of $147.27 in July 2008. Futures in May last year halted an advance below that level. Sell orders tend to be clustered close to chart resistance.
U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest since February 2010, the New York-based Conference Board said yesterday. Japan’s factory output increased 2 percent in January, and South Korea’s industrial production rose 3.3 percent, according to the nations’ governments today. All the increases beat the median economist estimates in Bloomberg surveys.
New York crude has advanced this year as the West builds sanctions against Iran. Many countries are curtailing purchases of oil from the country, and the U.S. anticipates “a very hard- nosed negotiation” with Iran over its nuclear program, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday.
Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for a fifth of the world’s crude, in response to an embargo. The Obama administration is in talks with the International Energy Agency as the U.S. considers using its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on concern the Persian Gulf nation may interrupt oil supplies, pushing gasoline prices higher, Energy Secretary Steven Chu said yesterday.
U.S. Pump Prices
The sanctions have helped boost Iranian crude prices 15 percent in 2012, while U.S. gasoline at the pump has risen to the highest for this time of year since the Energy Department started compiling records in 1973. Prices for motorists averaged $3.721 a gallon, up 10 percent from a year earlier, according to Energy Department data on Feb. 27.
Iran produced 3.5 million barrels of oil a day last month, according to analysts estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, the biggest member in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, had output of 9.7 million barrels a day.
Oil tumbled yesterday after the U.S. Commerce Department said orders for durable goods dropped 4 percent in January, the most in three years.
U.S. crude inventories climbed 521,000 barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said after the settlement. A government report today may show they gained by 1.1 million, according to a Bloomberg survey. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, rose 1.64 million barrels to 33.8 million, data from the industry-funded API showed. Distillate fuel inventories fell 3.31 million barrels and gasoline stockpiles dropped 916,000 barrels.
The API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.
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