U.S. January Primary Metals Leading Index: Summary

The U.S. primary metals leading index rose in January, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The index, a gauge of industry activity over the next eight months, rose 1.5 percent following a 0.8 percent gain in December.

==============================================================================
                         Jan.    Dec.    Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July
                         2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
==============================================================================
                        --------------------Primary Metals-------------------
Leading Index           162.6   160.2   159.0   156.7   156.5   158.4   158.8
 MOM%                    1.5%    0.8%    1.5%    0.1%   -1.2%   -0.3%    1.3%
 YOY%                    4.4%    3.1%    4.1%    5.2%    6.3%    8.9%    9.9%
 Growth Rate             6.2%    3.8%    3.1%    1.1%    1.8%    5.5%    7.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coincident Index          n/a   112.1   108.9   107.0   105.7   104.6   104.8
 MOM%                     n/a    2.9%    1.8%    1.2%    1.1%   -0.2%    0.6%
 YOY%                     n/a   13.5%   12.4%   12.3%   10.8%   10.2%   10.7%
 Growth Rate              n/a   15.7%   11.6%    9.9%    9.0%    8.6%   10.7%
==============================================================================
                         Jan.    Dec.    Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July
                         2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
==============================================================================
Leading Price Index       n/a   107.1   105.7   105.8   104.6   106.5   107.9
 MOM%                     n/a    1.3%   -0.1%    1.1%   -1.8%   -1.3%   -1.0%
 YOY%                     n/a   -1.2%   -2.1%   -1.9%   -2.4%   -0.6%    0.1%
 Growth Rate            -7.4%  -28.1%  -31.4%  -24.0%  -35.5%    3.6%   19.4%
==============================================================================
                         Dec.    Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July    June
                         2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
==============================================================================
                       --------------------Steel Industry-------------------
Leading Index           111.4   111.3   110.2   110.1   110.7   110.9   109.3
 MOM%                    0.1%    1.0%    0.1%   -0.5%   -0.2%    1.5%   -1.9%
 YOY%                   -1.4%   -0.4%    1.7%    2.6%    4.2%    4.6%    2.1%
 Growth Rate             2.0%    2.1%    0.8%    1.2%    2.9%    3.8%    1.5%
Coincident Index        117.1   115.1   113.1   112.0   111.6   111.1   111.2
 MOM%                    1.7%    1.8%    1.0%    0.4%    0.5%   -0.1%    8.0%
 YOY%                   14.8%   14.8%   16.4%   15.1%   15.8%   16.1%   14.5%
 Growth Rate            10.0%    7.7%    5.4%    4.3%    4.6%    4.8%    5.9%
==============================================================================
                         Dec.    Nov.    Oct.   Sept.    Aug.    July    June
                         2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
==============================================================================
                        -------------------Copper Industry-------------------
Leading Index           119.6   117.4   118.2   113.9   118.0   119.9   120.3
 MOM%                    1.9%   -0.7%    3.8%   -3.5%   -1.6%   -0.3%   -0.6%
 YOY%                   -1.3%   -1.3%   -0.7%   -3.1%    0.2%    2.1%    2.0%
 Growth Rate             0.7%   -2.8%   -1.8%   -8.7%   -2.5%    0.7%    1.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coincident Index        106.4   105.7   107.8   106.7   106.7   104.7   102.6
 MOM%                    0.7%   -1.9%    1.0%    0.0%    1.9%    2.0%   -1.0%
 YOY%                    7.7%    5.7%    8.1%    9.4%    6.3%    5.9%    5.1%
 Growth Rate             6.2%    5.9%   11.1%   10.5%   11.7%    8.7%    5.6%
==============================================================================
NOTE: The leading index for primary metals tends to turn
eight months before the coincident indicator. For copper 
and steel it tends to be seven months. The leading index
of metal prices tends to indicate price changes eight months
in advance. The growth rate is a six-month smoothed growth
rate at a compound annual rate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Sebany in Washington at msebany@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net

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