BP Boosts 2030 Energy-Use Estimate, Cuts 2015 Renewable Forecast

BP Plc (BP/) raised its estimate of global energy demand in 2030, while cutting its forecast for renewable power consumption in 2015 by 3.6 percent.

World energy demand will jump 39 percent in the next 20 years, with the expansion coming almost entirely from developing nations, to 16.63 billion metric tons of oil equivalent, the London-based company said in its Energy Outlook 2030 report. That’s 1.2 percent higher than last year’s estimate of 16.43 billion tons.

Oil, the world’s leading fuel today, will lose market share, BP said. Still, demand for hydrocarbon liquids will rise 18 percent to 103 million barrels per day compared with 2010.

Renewable-energy consumption will be the equivalent of 264 million tons in 2015, a lower forecast because of reduced use mainly in North America, according to the BP data.

The outlook for demand shows the world needs open, competitive markets to satisfy demand at low cost and provide secure supplies, Bob Dudley, BP chief executive, said in a statement. “It shows there are things we can’t change, like the underlying drivers of energy demand, and things we can change, like the way we satisfy that demand.”

The growth of so-called unconventional energy supply, including U.S. shale fuel, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deep-water fields, will help rich nations become almost totally energy self-sufficient by 2030, BP said. The rest of the world, particularly Asia, will depend increasingly on the Middle East for its growing oil requirements, it said.

Emissions May Peak

“Improvements in fuel efficiency, including hybridization of vehicles, will partly offset continued strong growth in vehicle sales in emerging markets,” the company said.

Global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by about 28 percent, slower than the 39 percent growth in energy demand, according to the report.

A year ago, BP said emissions would advance 27 percent through 2030. The company said increased use of renewables would slow the pace of emissions output. “If more aggressive policies than currently envisioned are introduced, global CO2 emissions could begin to decline by 2030,” it said.

“One thing which is striking to me is until about three years ago, when I would give presentations, two out of three questions were about climate change,” BP’s chief economist Christof Ruehl said at a presentation in London today. “Now, almost nobody raises them anymore, which to me reflects a sense of frustration.”

Imports to Rise

Use of renewable energy including biofuels will increase at more than 8 percent a year in the period, outstripping the 2- percent pace of gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel, BP said.

By 2030, nations buying energy from other countries will need to import 40 percent more than they do today, the oil producer said. “In North America, efforts to reduce dependence on foreign supplies should show impressive results in the next couple of decades,” it said.

Supply growth from biofuels as well as unconventional oil and gas will reverse North America’s energy deficit and turn it into a “small surplus” by 2030, it said.

In contrast, Europe’s energy deficit will remain at current levels for oil and coal, but will increase by some two thirds for natural gas, supplied by liquefied natural gas and pipelines from the former Soviet Union, BP said.

China’s energy deficit across all fuels will widen by more than a factor of five and India’s, mainly of oil and coal, will more than double in the period to 2030, it said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mathew Carr in London at m.carr@bloomberg.net; Lananh Nguyen in London at lnguyen35@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net

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