Winners of 2011 Show Tumult Across the Pacific: William Pesek
If Asians (MXAP) got together to name a person of the year, someone who brought surprise, intrigue and economic impact to the region, the choice would be obvious: Mother Nature.
From earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand to floods in the Philippines and Thailand to Chinese droughts to volcanic eruptions in Indonesia, this was a year overrun by nature’s fury. Food shortages and the effects of climate change challenged governments and inflation rates as rarely before.
Other forces of nature, meanwhile, ran out of steam. The most surprising thing about Kim Jong Il’s death is that we were so surprised. Time was never on the side of the hard-living North Korean leader after a 2008 stroke. Yet, the world seemed to think the laws of science no longer applied to Kim. Unstoppable China also showed signs of being subject to a set of laws -- those of economics, which guarantee that rapid growth inevitably slows.
As 2011 draws to a close, 10 awards are in order for the countries, people and companies that shaped Asia’s tumultuous year -- natural disasters aside.
Homer Simpson Award: To the hapless crowd at Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), whose corruption and negligence turned Japan’s March 11 earthquake and tsunami into the worst crisis since Chernobyl. Japan’s nuclear industry was proved to be no sounder than that of the fictional Springfield Nuclear Power Plant, where on “The Simpsons” cartoon program, the bumbling Homer heads safety. Only for Japan’s 126 million people, there’s nothing to laugh about.
‘Dictatorships for Dummies’
Ready or Not Award: To Kim Jong Un, the 20-something son expected to replace Kim Jong Il. Grandfather Kim Il Sung spent decades preparing his son to take over in 1994. Kim Jong Il had far less time to show his successor the ropes. If only Amazon.com carried a “Dictatorships for Dummies” title.
Reality TV Award: To Philippine President Benigno Aquino, for offering nary a dull moment. First, he stood up to the Catholic Church’s stance against contraception and family planning. Then he went after the billions of dollars watchdog groups say Ferdinand Marcos looted during his 21 years in power. Next, he arrested predecessor Gloria Arroyo on corruption charges. And you think things are tense in Washington?
Overwhelmed Freshman Award: To Yingluck Shinawatra, the fresh-faced prime minister of Thailand. With her unsteady handling of massive floods that breached Bangkok’s defenses, Yingluck confirmed concerns that she is both unqualified for the job and a proxy for her brother Thaksin Shinawatra. He was ousted from the premiership in 2006 amid huge street protests. Talk that Yingluck may allow her brother to return to Thailand means one thing: This might just be a warm-up.
Coming Out Party Award: To Myanmar, for shocking the globe by taking steps toward democracy. If you told Hillary Clinton a year ago that she would be in Yangon and embracing Aung Sang Suu Kyi, the U.S. secretary of state might have laughed. It makes you wonder whether Pope Benedict XVI will soon get an invite.
Underdog Award: To Anna Hazare, whose hunger strike shook India. Only history will tell if the anti-corruption movement touched off by the Gandhian social activist will drive the change India’s inefficient economy needs. It’s a dialog that India must have if it’s going to keep up with China.
Grrl Power Award: To Julia Gillard, the Australian prime minister who is thriving in a man’s world. After toppling predecessor Kevin Rudd in a June 2010 party coup, word was that Gillard wouldn’t last. Today, she’s running an economy that’s the envy of the developed world and planning to lead the Labor Party to the next election in 2013. Gillard is also working to increase female participation in Australia’s executive suites. Good on you, mate.
Clueless Executive Award: Although it’s hard to top Japan’s Tepco for dismal leadership, Olympus Corp. deserves honorable mention for a scandal that left a $1.3 billion hole in its balance sheet and President Shuichi Takayama struggling to save the company’s board. And the next recall by Sony Corp., which is on course for a fourth straight annual loss, should be Chairman Howard Stringer.
Contrarian Indicator Award: To Standard & Poor’s, which might as well have flashed a “buy” signal on American debt when it cut the U.S.’s AAA rating in August. Far from fleeing the dollar, investors -- many of them from Asia -- loaded up anew on U.S. Treasuries. Does that signify complete distrust of our credit-rating system, or what?
Meredith Whitney Award: To Muddy Waters LLC, the Hong Kong- based short-seller that claimed to have found financial shenanigans at timberland owner Sino-Forest Corp. Whitney’s 2007 prediction that Citigroup Inc.’s dividend was in danger -- it was later cut -- drew denials and rebukes. Muddy Waters’s report, initially disputed, is looking more accurate (TRE) by the day. Among the investors tripped up was John Paulson, he of the colossally profitable bet on subprime mortgages.
It’s fitting that the final award concerns China because Asia’s prospects are so dependent on the region’s dominant economic power. Maybe next year is when we will find out if Sino-Forest was an anomaly or a microcosm of the Chinese growth miracle. If it’s the latter, then what Mother Nature served up this year might seem tame by comparison.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
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