East Europe Bad Loans Peaked This Year, Raiffeisen Says
By Zoe Schneeweiss -
2011-11-08T13:49:14Z
Non-performing loans in eastern Europe probably peaked this year, according to a study by analysts at Raiffeisen Bank International AG. (RBI)
Hungary is the exception, according to Gunter Deuber and Jovan Sikimic at Raiffeisen in Vienna. While bad loans stood at 13 percent at the end of the first six months, a peak of 16 percent isn’t seen until 2013, with delinquencies in Hungary expected to fall to 11 percent to 13 percent three to four years after they hit the highest point.
Following is a table showing the breakdown by country. Amounts are in percent:
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Country Current/ NPLs in 3-4 years time
peak Optimistic Pessimistic
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Albania 17.0 9 14
Bosnia 11.8 5 8
Bulgaria 13.5 4 9
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Country Current/ NPLs in 3-4 years time
peak Optimistic Pessimistic
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Croatia 11.9 5 10
Czech Republic 6.3 3 4
Hungary 16.0 (peak = 2013)
Poland 7.9 3 5
Romania 13.4 5 9
Russia 5.7 2 5
Serbia 18.1 7 14
Slovak Republic 5.8 2 4
Slovenia 3.9 3 3
Ukraine 40.0 15 28
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To contact the reporter on this story: Zoe Schneeweiss in Vienna at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net
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