U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2011-2014 Economic Projections

Following are the economic projections of the Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents:

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Real GDP         2011 Est.     2012 Est.     2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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Real GDP Central tendency for the longer run is 2.4% to 2.7%
  Nov. 2, 2011  1.6% to 1.7%  2.5% to 2.9%  3.0% to 3.5%  3.0% to 3.9%
 June 22, 2011  2.7% to 2.9%  3.3% to 3.7%  3.5% to 4.2%     n/a
April 27, 2011  3.1% to 3.3%  3.5% to 4.2%  3.5% to 4.3%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  3.4% to 3.9%  3.5% to 4.4%  3.7% to 4.6%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  3.0% to 3.6%  3.6% to 4.5%  3.5% to 4.6%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  3.5% to 4.2%  3.5% to 4.5%     n/a           n/a
  May 19, 2010  3.4% to 4.5%  3.5% to 4.5%     n/a           n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  3.4% to 4.5%  3.5% to 4.5%     n/a           n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  3.4% to 4.5%  3.5% to 4.8%     n/a           n/a
 June 24, 2009  3.8% to 4.6%      n/a          n/a           n/a
April 29, 2009  3.5% to 4.8%      n/a          n/a           n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  3.8% to 5.0%      n/a          n/a           n/a
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Real GDP         2011 Est.     2012 Est.     2013 Est.     2014 Est.
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Real GDP Range for the longer run is 2.2% to 3.0%
  Nov. 2, 2011  1.6% to 1.8%  2.3% to 3.5%  2.7% to 4.0%   2.7% to 4.5%
 June 22, 2011  2.5% to 3.0%  2.2% to 4.0%  3.0% to 4.5%     n/a
April 27, 2011  2.9% to 3.7%  2.9% to 4.4%  3.0% to 5.0%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  3.2% to 4.2%  3.4% to 4.5%  3.0% to 5.0%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  2.5% to 4.0%  2.6% to 4.7%  3.0% to 5.0%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  2.9% to 4.5%  2.8% to 5.0%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  3.0% to 4.6%  2.8% to 5.0%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  2.7% to 4.7%  3.0% to 5.0%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  2.5% to 4.6%  2.8% to 5.0%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  2.3% to 5.0%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  2.3% to 5.0%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  2.3% to 5.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  2.0% to 5.0%      n/a           n/a          n/a

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Unemploy. rate     2011 Est.     2012 Est.     2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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Unemployment Rate Central tendency for the longer run is 5.2% to 6.0%
  Nov. 2, 2011  9.0% to 9.1%  8.5% to 8.7%  7.8% to 8.2%  6.8% to 7.7%
 June 22, 2011  8.6% to 8.9%  7.8% to 8.2%  7.0% to 7.5%     n/a
April 27, 2011  8.4% to 8.7%  7.6% to 7.9%  6.8% to 7.2%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  8.8% to 9.0%  7.6% to 8.1%  6.8% to 7.2%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  8.9% to 9.1%  7.7% to 8.2%  6.9% to 7.4%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  8.3% to 8.7%  7.1% to 7.5%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  8.1% to 8.5%  6.6% to 7.5%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  8.2% to 8.5%  6.6% to 7.5%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  8.2% to 8.6%  6.8% to 7.5%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  8.4% to 8.8%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  7.7% to 8.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  6.7% to 7.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  5.5% to 6.6%      n/a           n/a          n/a

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Unemploy. rate    2011 Est.      2012 Est.     2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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Unemployment Rate Range for the longer run is 5.0% to 6.0%
  Nov. 2, 2011  8.9% to 9.1%  8.1% to 8.9%  7.5% to 8.4%  6.5% to 8.0%
 June 22, 2011  8.4% to 9.1%  7.5% to 8.7%  6.5% to 8.3%     n/a
April 27, 2011  8.1% to 8.9%  7.1% to 8.4%  6.0% to 8.4%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  8.4% to 9.0%  7.2% to 8.4%  6.0% to 7.9%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  8.2% to 9.3%  7.0% to 8.7%  5.9% to 7.9%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  7.6% to 8.9%  6.8% to 7.9%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  7.2% to 8.7%  6.4% to 7.7%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  7.2% to 8.8%  6.1% to 7.6%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  7.2% to 8.7%  6.1% to 7.6%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  6.8% to 9.2%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  6.5% to 9.0%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  5.5% to 8.0%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  4.9% to 7.3%      n/a           n/a          n/a

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PCE Price Index   2011 Est.     2012 Est.     2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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PCE Price Index Central tendency for the longer run is 1.7% to 2.0%
  Nov. 2, 2011  2.7% to 2.9%  1.4% to 2.0%  1.5% to 2.0%  1.5% to 2.0%
 June 22, 2011  2.3% to 2.5%  1.5% to 2.0%  1.5% to 2.0%     n/a
April 27, 2011  2.1% to 2.8%  1.2% to 2.0%  1.4% to 2.0%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  1.3% to 1.7%  1.0% to 1.9%  1.2% to 2.0%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  1.1% to 1.7%  1.1% to 1.8%  1.2% to 2.0%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  1.1% to 1.6%  1.0% to 1.7%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  1.1% to 1.9%  1.2% to 2.0%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  1.1% to 2.0%  1.3% to 2.0%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  1.0% to 1.9%  1.2% to 1.9%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  1.1% to 2.0%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  1.0% to 1.9%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  0.9% to 1.7%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  1.4% to 1.7%      n/a           n/a          n/a

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PCE Price Index   2011 Est.      2012 Est.     2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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PCE Price Index Range for the longer run is 1.5% to 2.0%
  Nov. 2, 2011  2.5% to 3.3%  1.4% to 2.8%  1.4% to 2.5%   1.5% to 2.4%
 June 22, 2011  2.1% to 3.5%  1.2% to 2.8%  1.3% to 2.5%     n/a
April 27, 2011  2.0% to 3.6%  1.0% to 2.8%  1.2% to 2.5%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  1.0% to 2.0%  0.7% to 2.2%  0.6% to 2.0%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  0.9% to 2.2%  0.6% to 2.2%  0.4% to 2.0%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  0.8% to 2.4%  0.5% to 2.2%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  0.9% to 2.4%  0.7% to 2.2%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  1.0% to 2.4%  0.8% to 2.0%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  0.6% to 2.4%  0.2% to 2.3%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  0.5% to 2.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  0.5% to 2.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  0.2% to 2.1%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  0.8% to 1.8%      n/a           n/a          n/a

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                  2011 Est.     2012 Est.     2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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Core PCE Price Index Central tendency
  Nov. 2, 2011  1.8% to 1.9%  1.5% to 2.0%  1.4% to 1.9%  1.5% to 2.0%
 June 22, 2011  1.5% to 1.8%  1.4% to 2.0%  1.4% to 2.0%     n/a
April 27, 2011  1.3% to 1.6%  1.3% to 1.8%  1.4% to 2.0%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  1.0% to 1.3%  1.0% to 1.5%  1.2% to 2.0%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  0.9% to 1.6%  1.0% to 1.6%  1.1% to 2.0%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  0.9% to 1.3%  1.0% to 1.5%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  1.0% to 1.5%  1.2% to 1.6%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  1.0% to 1.9%  1.2% to 1.9%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  1.0% to 1.6%  1.0% to 1.7%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  0.9% to 1.7%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  0.8% to 1.6%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  0.7% to 1.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  1.3% to 1.7%      n/a           n/a          n/a

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                  2011 Est.     2012 Est.    2013 Est.    2014 Est.
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Core PCE Price Index Range
  Nov. 2, 2011  1.7% to 2.0%  1.3% to 2.1%  1.4% to 2.1%  1.4% to 2.2%
 June 22, 2011  1.5% to 2.3%  1.2% to 2.5%  1.3% to 2.5%     n/a
April 27, 2011  1.1% to 2.0%  1.1% to 2.0%  1.2% to 2.0%     n/a
 Feb. 16, 2011  0.7% to 1.8%  0.6% to 2.0%  0.6% to 2.0%     n/a
 Nov. 23, 2010  0.7% to 2.0%  0.6% to 2.0%  0.5% to 2.0%     n/a
 July 14, 2010  0.6% to 2.4%  0.4% to 2.2%      n/a          n/a
  May 19, 2010  0.6% to 2.4%  0.6% to 2.2%      n/a          n/a
 Jan. 27, 2010  0.9% to 2.4%  0.8% to 2.0%      n/a          n/a
  Nov. 4, 2009  0.5% to 2.4%  0.2% to 2.3%      n/a          n/a
 June 24, 2009  0.2% to 2.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
April 29, 2009  0.2% to 2.5%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Jan. 28, 2009  0.0% to 1.8%      n/a           n/a          n/a
 Oct. 29, 2008  0.8% to 1.8%      n/a           n/a          n/a
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NOTE: Forecasts were discussed at the FOMC meeting.
Projections reflect change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter,
except for the unemployment rate, which is the average for the
fourth quarter of year indicated. PCE core price index excludes
food and energy.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristy Scheuble in Washington at kmckeaney@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Marco Babic at mbabic@bloomberg.net

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