Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Copper Rout Outpaces Analysts
The following are the top stories on metals, agriculture and shipping.
ECONOMIC EVENTS, AGRICULTURE REPORTS: Forecast Prior Time (N.Y.) Personal Income AUG 0.1% 0.3% 8:30 Personal Spending AUG 0.2% 0.8% 8:30 PCE Deflator (YoY) AUG 2.9% 2.8% 8:30 Chicago Purch. Manager SEP 55.0 56.5 9:45 U. of Michigan Conf. SEP F 57.8 57.8 9:55 NAPM-Milwaukee SEP 57.2 58.3 10:00 Quarterly Wheat Stock 3Q 2035M 861M 8:30 Quarterly Barley Stocks 3Q 89M 8:30 Quarterly Corn Stocks 3Q 948M 3670M 8:30 Quarterly Oat Stocks 3Q 68M 8:30 Quarterly Soybean Stocks 3Q 225M 619M 8:30 Quarterly Sorghum Stocks 3Q 80M 8:30
Metal Prices: ($/ton)
Last % Chg RSI Copper 7,280 +1.5 27 Aluminum 2,255 +0.4 37 Zinc 1,963 +2.0 37 Lead 2,050 +1.5 37 Nickel 18,800 +0.7 37 Tin 21,000 +1.6 39
Last % Chg % YTD U.S. Dollar Index 78.241 +0.4 -1.0 Crude Oil $82.53 +0.5 -9.7 Gold $1,627.8 +0.8 +15 MSCI World Index 1,125.53 -0.4 -12
COMMODITY EXCLUSIVES: Copper Rout Outpaces Analysts Focused on Shortages: Commodities The biggest rout in copper since the global recession drove analysts to cut their price forecasts by 16 percent in a week as mounting concern about growth eroded expectations for supply shortages. Nickel to Post Worst Performance Since Recession, Survey Shows Nickel will post its worst performance this year since the financial turmoil of 2008 on concern that the European debt crisis will curb global growth and reduce demand, according to a Bloomberg survey. Zinc Output to Rise in Japan to Meet Demand Growth After Quake Japan’s zinc output will climb in 2012 as smelters run at full capacity to meet recovering demand from the auto and construction industries after the earthquake and tsunami, amid a forecast for a global deficit. INDUSTRIAL METALS: Copper Slumps, Poised for Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 2008 Copper slumped along with other industrial metals, set for the biggest quarterly drop since 2008, as contracting manufacturing in China spurred concern that demand from the biggest consumer will fall. Japan Copper Cable Shipments to Fall 2.2% This Fiscal Year Japan’s copper wire and cable shipments will likely drop 2.2 percent in the year ending March 31 from a year earlier, an industry group said. MINING: Minmetals Agrees to Buy Anvil Mining for HK$10 Billion (2) Minmetals Resources Ltd., a unit of China’s largest metals trader, agreed to buy Anvil Mining Ltd. for HK$10 billion ($1.3 billion), gaining three copper mines in Africa. Afghanistan Has ‘World-Class’ Mineral Resources, U.S. Says (2) Afghanistan has “world-class mineral resources” including rare-earth elements, gold, iron and copper, the U.S. Geological Survey said today. Emerging Market Hedging Prices Jump on Europe Infection: Options The price of options to protect against losses on equities from China to India and Brazil has surged to its highest since 2009 relative to U.S. contracts. PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Poised for 12th Quarterly Advance on Europe’s Debt Crisis Gold climbed, extending a 12th quarterly advance, as investors sought to protect their wealth against Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and a potential slowdown in the worldwide economy. Gold May Gain as Price-Rout Spurs Physical Demand, Survey Shows Gold may gain as the slump in prices this month boosts physical purchases and spurs investors to buy the metal as a protection of wealth, a survey found. Gold Signaling Rebound From September Slump: Technical Analysis Gold, heading to biggest monthly decline since 2008, may rally 8.2 percent by the end of this year, according to technical analysis by Paul Kavanaugh, a senior analyst and broker at PFGBest. AGRICULTURE: Fifty-Year Drop in Asian Monsoons Linked to Fossil-Fuel Use The reduction in seasonal rainfall in South Asia over the past 50 years may be a result of tiny chemicals emitted into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, U.S. scientists said. India June-September Monsoon Rains to Beat Forecast, Agency Says India’s monsoon, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 235 million farmers, may be above normal in the June- September period, D. Sivananda Pai, a director at the India Meteorological Department, said by phone from Pune today. Palm Oil Gains to Pare Quarterly Loss as Commodities Rebound Palm oil climbed for the first time in three days, paring a third quarterly loss, as global commodities rebounded after German lawmakers approved an expanded European bailout fund. Farm Subsidies May Face Supercommittee Cuts Amid Record Profits U.S. farmers earning record profits are fighting to maintain agricultural subsidies, a likely target of the congressional supercommittee working to reduce federal spending. Coffee Price to ‘Fall Out of Bed’ on Real Drop: Chart of the Day Coffee, which is headed for the biggest monthly loss in more than three years, may extend declines as a drop in Brazil’s currency and favorable weather boost supplies from the country, the world’s biggest exporter. Rubber Climbs, Paring Quarterly Slump, as Growth Concern Eases Rubber advanced, paring a quarterly decline, after U.S. initial jobless claims fell more than estimated and German lawmakers backed an enhanced euro-region rescue fund, easing concern the global economic recovery may stall. Corn Gains as Report May Show Drop in U.S. Quarterly Stockpiles Corn advanced, paring its worst monthly loss since 2008, on speculation that a report today will show a decline in U.S. stockpiles. Wheat and soybeans increased. SHIPPING: China August Shipyard New Orders Fall 60% on Year New orders for Chinese shipyards in August fell 60 percent from a year earlier to 4.49 million deadweight tons, according to a statement posted to the National Development and Reform Commission’s website today. ECONOMIES: China Manufacturing Contracts for Third Month, Survey Shows (1) A gauge of Chinese manufacturing shrank for a third month, the longest contraction since 2009, as measures of new orders and export demand declined. China’s Sept. HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index Unchanged at 49.9 A Chinese manufacturing index was unchanged at 49.9 in September from August, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said in a statement today. A number below 50 indicates contraction. The index’s preliminary reading issued on Sept. 22 was 49.4. Deposits Set for Quarterly Drop Squeeze Lending: China Credit Savings at China’s banks are headed for the first quarterly decline in almost 20 years, threatening to extend a drop in lending and spurring financial companies to sell bonds to raise cash. OTHER MARKETS: Yen, Dollar Gain as Metals Fall on Growth Outlook; Kiwi Drops The yen and dollar strengthened, while metals fell and Asian stocks headed for their biggest quarterly loss since 2008 amid signs global economic growth is slowing. New Zealand’s currency fell and bond yields jumped the most this year after the nation’s credit ratings were lowered. Asian Stock Index Poised for Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2008 Asian stocks dropped for the first time in four days, with the regional benchmark index set for its biggest quarterly decline since December 2008, as U.S. economic reports failed to soothe investor concerns that growth in the world’s largest economy is faltering. Japan Puts Cheapest Ever as Traders Seek Banking Haven: Options Japanese options are the cheapest ever compared with U.S. contracts as traders bet the Nikkei-225 Stock Average, which has the smallest financials weighting among the biggest nations, is a haven as shares fall globally. Oil Gains in New York; Set for Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2008 Oil rose in New York, paring the steepest quarterly drop since 2008, as investors speculated U.S. fuel demand will increase on signs the economy of the world’s biggest crude user is expanding faster than estimated. SPORTS: Stoke Tops Europa League Group; Spurs, Fulham, Birmingham Win Stoke beat Besiktas 2-1 to move atop its group in soccer’s Europa League, as English rivals Tottenham, Fulham and Birmingham also won. Thursday’s Europa League Soccer Results Thursday’s Europa League group stage soccer results All Blacks Named for Rugby World Cup Match Against Canada (1) New Zealand rugby union selectors named the following team for the All Blacks’ fourth Rugby World Cup match against Canada on Oct. 2 in Wellington: To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stuart Wallace in London at firstname.lastname@example.org