U.S. Commodities Day Ahead: Corn-Crop Stunner at Morgan Stanley

The following are the top stories on metals, agriculture and shipping.

ECONOMIC EVENTS, AGRICULTURE REPORTS:

                                     Forecast   Prior       Time
                                                          (N.Y.)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls    JUN       105K      54K       8:30
Unemployment Rate             JUN       9.1%      9.1%      8:30
Avg Hourly Earning MOM        JUN       0.2%      0.3%      8:30
Wholesale Inventories         MAY       0.6%      0.8%     10:00
Consumer Credit               MAY       $4.000B   $6.247B  15:00
Net Exports Cotton-Old        JUN 30              -135.3    8:30
Net Exports Corn-Old          JUN 30              691.7     8:30
Net Exports Soybeans-Old      JUN 30              -335.6    8:30
Net Exports Soy Meal-Old      JUN 30              108.3     8:30
Net Exports Soy Oil-Old       JUN 30              23.6      8:30
Net Exports Wheat-Old         JUN 30              545.1     8:30
USDA Cattle Slaughter         JUL 8               129000   14:00
USDA Hog Slaughter            JUL 8               417000   14:00

METAL PRICES: ($/ton)
                 Last  % Chg RSI
Copper          9,750   +0.1  71
Aluminum        2,578   -0.5  52
Zinc            2,392   -0.8  63
Lead            2,723   +0.1  68
Nickel         24,165   +1.1  65
Tin            27,540   +0.0  63

OTHER MARKETS:
                       Last  % Chg % YTD
U.S. Dollar Index    75.227   +0.4  -4.8
Crude Oil            $98.12   -0.6  +7.4
Gold               $1,529.2   -0.2  +7.6
MSCI World Index   1,351.59   -0.1  +5.6

TOP STORY:

Corn-Crop Stunner at Morgan Stanley Means U.S. Overstated Supply

U.S. corn supplies may be smaller than expected this year, according to analysts including Morgan Stanley’s Hussein Allidina who were surprised by a government forecast for the second-highest planted acreage since 1944.

COMMODITY EXCLUSIVES:

Enel Opens Solar Panel Plant as Italy Seeks to Boost Renewables

Enel SpA, STMicroelectronics NV, and Sharp Corp inaugurated Italy’s biggest solar panel plant today as the country seeks to boost renewable energy.

Reliance Said Likely to Increase Gas Output After Two Years (1)

Reliance Industries Ltd. may lift natural gas output at India’s biggest deposit after two years as it awaits ships that will connect deepwater wells drilled this year to pipelines, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

India Said to Consider Ending Curbs on Wheat, Rice Exports (2)

India, the second-biggest grower of wheat and rice, may allow private traders to export 3 million metric tons of grain this year as stockpiles climb, three government officials with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Food Prices, Water Shortages to ‘Hammer’ Poor Countries (1)

Developing economies will be “hammered” as declining water supply adds to problems confronting farmers who are already struggling to meet food demand, pushing prices even higher, said CH2M Hill Cos.

Gazprom Prices May Cause ‘Big Problem’ With EU Sales, Stern Says

OAO Gazprom may lose sales in Europe as the Russian gas exporter’s insistence on pricing policies creates “a big problem” with buyers, said Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Malema’s Call to Seize South Africa’s Mines Spooks Investors (1)

Julius Malema, the youth leader of South Africa’s ruling party, is rattling investors and stoking racial tension with his declaration of war on “white monopoly capital” and calls for government seizure of mines and banks.

Billionaire Ambani Said in Talks to Sell Road, Power Stakes (2)

Billionaire Anil Ambani’s Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. is in talks to sell stakes in its power transmission business, road and subway projects, said two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Coleman’s $1.2 Billion Commodity Fund Said to Drop 10% in June

Michael Coleman and Doug King’s $1.2 billion commodity hedge fund fell 10 percent in June, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Gas’s Six-Month Drop to End on Heat, Hurricanes: Energy Markets

Natural gas futures may snap two quarters of declines as hotter-than-normal weather and an active hurricane season keep U.S. stockpiles from rising to a record for a third straight year.

INDUSTRIAL METALS:

Rio Tinto Delivers First Ore for London Olympic Games Medals

Rio Tinto Group has delivered to organizers of the London 2012 Olympics the first of the ore that will be turned into 4,700 medals and competed for by the world’s top athletes in just over a year.

Copper May Advance on Speculation Hiring Strengthened in U.S.

Copper, on course for a second weekly climb, may rise on speculation hiring in the U.S. sped up in June.

Aluminum Product Exports From China at Record on Rebate (1)

Aluminum product exports from China, the largest supplier, may have jumped to a record for a second month in June as producers and traders rushed to sell ahead of an expected reduction of a tax rebate.

MINING:

Aquila Said to Plan Sale of Coal Mining Project in Queensland

Aquila Resources Ltd. plans to sell its Washpool coal mining asset in Queensland state as it seeks funds for an iron- ore project in Western Australia, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

Coal India, Sesa Fall on Approval of Draft India Mining Bill (2)

Coal India Ltd. led declines among mining companies in Mumbai after a ministers’ panel yesterday approved a draft mining bill that will erode company profits.

ENRC Risks Losing Managers, Hampering CEO Search, Director Says

Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., a miner of metals in Kazakhstan, risks hampering its search for a chief executive officer and losing managers should it fail to resolve board conflicts, independent director Paul Judge said.

Guildford Coal May Sell Stake to Finance Project Constructions

Guildford Coal Ltd., an Australian explorer of the fuel, may sell part of itself or its projects to fund construction and has received initial interest from Japan, China and India, Managing Director Michael Avery said.

PRECIOUS METALS:

Gold Falls in London as Investors Sell on Rally, Stronger Dollar

Gold declined for the first time this week in London as a stronger dollar curbed demand for an alternative asset and as some investors sold the metal after its first weekly rally in three.

Gold May Advance as Debt Concerns Boost Demand, Survey Shows

Gold may gain as debt concerns in Europe and the U.S. spur demand for the metal as a protection of wealth, a survey found.

AGRICULTURE:

Cocoa Falls on Speculation Supply Will Be Ample; Sugar Drops

Cocoa fell for a third day in New York on speculation supply will be ample this quarter. Sugar also declined.

Palm Oil Gains as Advances in Crude Lifts the Appeal of Biofuel

Palm oil climbed for a second day to the highest level in more than a week after crude advanced, lifting the appeal of vegetable oils as a biofuel feedstock, and on gains in rival soybean oil.

Indonesia Set to Top Malaysia as Asia’s Biggest Cocoa Processor

Indonesia, the third-largest cocoa grower, may surpass Malaysia as the biggest grinder next year as it aims to produce 43 percent more butter and powder, according to Piter Jasman, chairman of the cocoa industry association.

Rice Futures Advance on U.S. Acreage, Thai Export Price Concerns

Rice advanced to its highest in almost five months on concerns that flooding will cut acreage in the U.S. and a shift in policy in Thailand will boost prices.

India Said to Consider Ending Curbs on Wheat, Rice Exports (1)

India, the second-biggest grower of wheat and rice, may allow private traders to export 3 million metric tons of grain this year as stockpiles climb, three government officials with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Balrampur Forecasts India Sugar Prices May Increase on Exports

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd., India’s second-largest sugar producer, expects prices to climb this year as the country exports more sweetener from the biggest harvest in three years.

China’s Cotton Area May Be Less Than Estimated, Association Says

Cotton acreage in China, the world’s largest user, may increase 5.2 percent this year, lower than previously estimated as a recent decline in prices and dry conditions in some areas discouraged farmers from replanting seedlings, according to a China Cotton Association statement.

SHIPPING:

Tropical Storm Calvin Gains Strength Off Mexico’s West Coast

Tropical Storm Calvin, the third named storm of this year’s eastern Pacific hurricane season, gained strength off Mexico’s west coast while the U.S. National Hurricane Center monitored two other systems in the Atlantic.

Coal Exports Near 19-Year High Buoy U.S. Rails: Freight Markets

The U.S. is poised to export the most coal since 1992 this year, filling a gap created when flooding interrupted Australian supplies and buoying shipments for railroads such as Union Pacific Corp. and CSX Corp.

ECONOMIES:

Yuan Bull Bets Decline to Post-Peg Low on Surplus: China Credit

Prospects for yuan appreciation fell to the lowest since the dollar peg was scrapped a year ago as an estimated 33 percent drop in the trade surplus gives China room to rebuff U.S. calls for faster gains, forwards contracts show.

China Debt Sale Fails for Third Time in 2011 on Cash Crunch (1)

China’s finance ministry failed to sell all of the debt offered at an auction for the third time this year as a cash crunch damped demand from banks.

Chinese Stocks May Join Korea, Russia Rally, Credit Suisse Says

South Korean and Russian equities will extend this year’s rallies while Chinese stocks may rebound as consumer price gains slow, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

Trichet Communes With Charlemagne Before Exorcising Lehman Ghost

As European officials haggled over the latest solution to Greece’s debt crisis last month, Jean-Claude Trichet circled the 1,200 year-old marble throne of Charlemagne in the German city of Aachen.

U.S. Payrolls Probably Picked Up in Sign Economy Rebounding (1)

Employers in the U.S. probably added more workers in June than the prior month, indicating the labor market may be poised to pick up in the second half, economists said before a report today.

German Exports Rose More Than Economists Forecast in May (2)

German exports increased more than economists forecast in May, adding to signs the sovereign debt crisis isn’t harming Europe’s largest economy.

Fed’s QE2 Spurred Shares, Commodities, Not Lending: Chart of Day

The Federal Reserve’s $600 billion program of bond purchases that ended last month boosted U.S. share prices while doing little to support an economic recovery, Totan Research Co. said.

Spain Fends Off Criticism on Banks as EU Introduces Reviews

Spain blunted European Union criticism of its handling of savings banks and tax policy, persuading the EU to water down judgments issued as part of a new economic-policing system.

OTHER MARKETS:

Euro Weakens, Italy Bonds, Banks Decline; S&P 500 Futures Drop

The euro weakened against the dollar, Italian bonds retreated and the country’s banks fell while sovereign default insurance climbed to a record. U.S. stock-index futures declined before the monthly payrolls report.

European Stocks Are Little Changed; PPR Advances as RWE Retreats

European stocks were little changed, erasing earlier gains, as the bonds of the euro area’s weakest economies declined amid renewed speculation that the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will spread. Asian shares climbed, while U.S. index futures dropped.

China, Hong Kong Stocks Cut to ‘Underweight’ at JPMorgan (1)

China and Hong Kong stocks were cut to “underweight” from “neutral” at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said speculation that Chinese policymakers are ending their tightening efforts is “premature.”

Oil Falls, Trimming Weekly Gain, on Supply Levels, European Debt

Oil fell, paring a second weekly gain in New York, on bets that fuel supplies are sufficient to meet demand and on concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will intensify.

Cameron Says News Corp. Should Have Let Brooks Resign (1)

Prime Minister David Cameron said the News Corp. executive running the News of the World when telephones were hacked should have been removed and that it’s up to regulators to decide on the company’s future role in U.K. television broadcasting.

Obama Summons Lawmakers for ‘Hard Bargaining’ on Debt Reduction

President Barack Obama is summoning top congressional Republicans and Democrats to a rare Sunday meeting at the White House to begin “hard bargaining” on a broad debt-reduction deal.

SPORTS:

Liverpool’s Asia Tour Vital to Standard Chartered Sponsorship

Standard Chartered Plc, the international bank that sponsors 18-time English soccer champion Liverpool, says the team’s tour of Asia next week is one of the reasons it agreed to pay out a record 81.5 million pounds ($29.6).

Samir Nasri Ready to Play Out Arsenal Contract: Soccer Roundup

The following is a roundup of soccer stories from U.K. newspapers, with clickable links to the Web.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stuart Wallace in London at swallace6@bloomberg.net

Press spacebar to pause and continue. Press esc to stop.

Bloomberg reserves the right to remove comments but is under no obligation to do so, or to explain individual moderation decisions.

Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.