Emerging Stocks Fall, Snapping Two-Day Advance, on Fed Forecast

Emerging-market stocks fell, snapping a two-day gain, after the Federal Reserve cut estimates for U.S. economic growth and after jobless claims rose more than forecast, raising concern the global recovery will stall.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 1 percent to 1,105.21 as of 10:35 a.m. in New York. The gauge has fallen 5.7 percent this quarter, headed for its first three-month retreat since the period ended June 30, 2010. Mexico’s IPC index dropped for the first time in four days, declining 0.9 percent. The Micex Index slid 1.9 percent in Moscow and Taiwan’s Taiex Index dropped 0.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) slid 0.4 percent.

The U.S. economic recovery is progressing “more slowly” than expected, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday. The Fed’s Open Market Committee said it will complete a $600 billion bond-purchase program, known as “QE2,” as scheduled this month. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said risk signals for financial stability in the euro area are flashing “red” as the debt crisis threatens to infect banks.

“The FOMC meeting left a pretty downbeat impression and indeed we seem to be in something of a sour spot whereupon U.S. growth is feeble, but not bad enough for a bout of QE3,” Timothy Ash, head of emerging-market research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, wrote in an e-mailed note. “This means a combination of less liquidity plus weaker global growth, which is not particularly appealing.”

Fed officials lowered their forecasts for U.S. growth and employment this year and next, projecting the economy will expand by between 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent this year, down from forecasts ranging from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent in April.

Jobless Claims

Applications for jobless benefits increased 9,000 in the week ended June 18 to 429,000, Labor Department figures showed today. The level of claims exceeded the highest estimate in a Bloomberg News survey in which the median projection called for 415,000 filings.

The lira weakened for a fourth day, depreciating 1 percent against the dollar, after the central bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 6.25 percent, in line with the forecast by 12 of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Czech koruna fell 0.3 percent against the euro after the local central bank left the two-week repurchase rate at 0.75 percent, also a record low, for a 13th month.

The ruble weakened by 1.3 percent against the dollar as oil slid as much as 6 percent in New York. The South African rand depreciated 1.3 percent against the dollar, the most in a month. The price of gold, a key South African export, fell from a seven-week high.

BUX Drops

Hungary’s BUX Index tumbled by 1.6 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its price target for Mol Nyrt., the country’s largest oil refiner, and the telecommunications watchdog issued a decree calling on Magyar Telekom Nyrt. to change the terms of its contracts with mobile phone clients to avoid “shocking bills.”

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5 percent, the most since March 7. Anhui Conch Cement Co. and Sany Heavy Industry Co. led increases after China Business News reported the government may release a five-year development plan for the construction machinery industry and the China Daily said the dams. China Shenhua Energy Co. jumped 2.9 percent on the nation’s plan to build more coal-fired power plants.

India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, advanced 1 percent in Mumbai as some investors judged recent losses as excessive. The gauge has dropped 14 percent this year. Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), India’s most valuable company, increased 2.9 percent.

The extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries rose 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 326, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s EMBI Global Index.

The Markit iTraxx SovX CEEMEA Index of eastern European, Middle East and Africa credit-default swaps rose three basis points to 205.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur at thchan@bloomberg.net; Jason Webb in London at jwebb25@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net

Bloomberg reserves the right to remove comments but is under no obligation to do so, or to explain individual moderation decisions.

Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.