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Volcano Ash Plume From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight, Weather Agency Says

Enlarge image Iceland Volcano Shuts Island's Airspace

Iceland Volcano Shuts Island's Airspace

Iceland Volcano Shuts Island's Airspace

AFP/Getty Images

Smoke and ash rises over the Grimsvoth volcano about 90 miles southeast of Reykjavik, Iceland on Saturday.

Smoke and ash rises over the Grimsvoth volcano about 90 miles southeast of Reykjavik, Iceland on Saturday. Source: AFP/Getty Images

Enlarge image Volcano Ash Plume From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Volcano Ash Plume From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Volcano Ash Plume From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg

Empty check in desks are seen at Keflavik International Airport following its closure for take offs and landings on Monday, May 23, 2011. Eurocontrol, which oversees European air traffic, said in a statement it expects “no significant impact” today, citing “risk” that ash may reach northern Europe in the next 48 Hours.

Empty check in desks are seen at Keflavik International Airport following its closure for take offs and landings on Monday, May 23, 2011. Eurocontrol, which oversees European air traffic, said in a statement it expects “no significant impact” today, citing “risk” that ash may reach northern Europe in the next 48 Hours. Photographer: Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg

Enlarge image Volcanic Ash From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Volcanic Ash From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Volcanic Ash From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg

The exit to the closed arrivals area is seen at Keflavik International Airport following its closure for take offs and landings.

The exit to the closed arrivals area is seen at Keflavik International Airport following its closure for take offs and landings. Photographer: Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg

Enlarge image Volcanic Ash From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Volcanic Ash From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Volcanic Ash From Iceland May Reach U.K. Tonight

Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg

Closed Icleandair Group hf check in desks are seen at Keflavik International Airport following its closure for take offs and landings.

Closed Icleandair Group hf check in desks are seen at Keflavik International Airport following its closure for take offs and landings. Photographer: Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg

An Icelandic volcanic eruption that began May 21 under Europe’s largest glacier could threaten air traffic with ash reaching the U.K. as early as tonight.

Predictive charts from the U.K. Met Office’s Volcanic Ash Advisory Center show ash from the Grimsvotn volcano beneath the Vatnajokull icecap stretching south over most of Scotland as of early morning tomorrow, mainly at lower altitudes.

“The ash plume has been coming down a bit but the fact that the cloud is getting a little lower doesn’t indicate that the eruption is slowing,” said Elin Jonasdottir, meteorologist with Iceland’s Met Office, by phone. “Our measurements show that the eruption has been rather stable since yesterday.”

Eurocontrol, which oversees European air traffic, said in a statement there had been “no significant impact” today. The group has convened the European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell, established after a volcanic eruption in Iceland last year shut air traffic for six days and grounded 100,000 flights.

The potential for flight disruptions prompted U.S. President Barack Obama to cut short a visit to Ireland, the first leg of his six-day trip to Europe. Josh Earnest, a White House spokesman, said Air Force One will leave for the U.K. tonight rather than tomorrow as planned. Obama and other world leaders are scheduled to convene for a meeting of the Group of Eight nations May 26 and 27 in Deauville, France.

Airport Closure

This week’s eruption has so far led to the closing of Iceland’s main airport in Keflavik. Icelandair Group hf (ICEAIR), which canceled all European flights today, said in a statement that based on new ash forecasts the airport will reopen tonight and that its flights will be back on schedule tomorrow.

Avinor, which operates Norwegian airports, said today that ash is expected to enter the Nordic country’s airspace in the “afternoon” and that it may have to close air traffic between the mainland and the Svalbard islands from 8 p.m.

Air Greenland canceled a flight from Copenhagen to its home market and suspended ticket sales to at least May 27, the company said in a statement. Danish authorities, which administer Greenland airspace, have restricted flights in the eastern part of the Arctic island.

2010 Eruption

Last year, an eruption beneath the Eyjafjallajokull glacier on April 14 closed European airspace for six days, grounding flights at a cost of $1.7 billion, the International Air Transport Association estimated. Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were forced to cancel plans then to attend the funeral of Polish President Lech Kaczynski. Iceland, with a population of about 320,000, is one of the world’s most volcanically and geologically active countries with frequent eruptions.

The Bloomberg World Airlines index, which comprises 31 carriers, fell 3.1 percent to 76.92 points as of 2:30 p.m. New York time.

Limits on flying may mirror the looser restrictions imposed toward the end of last year’s eruption. Airspace and runway closures were gradually eased after airlines complained that measures were too strict, with the level of dust through which aircraft could fly increased twice.

Changed Policies

The U.K. Civil Aviation Authority has revised its policies since last year. Airlines will be allowed to fly in ash density of two grams or less per 10 cubic meters of air. Airlines will also be allowed to fly where the density measures between two and four grams per 10 cubic meters, provided they prove that their planes can safely cope with that amount. At levels above 4 grams all airplanes are still banned from flying.

“Our number one priority is to ensure the safety of people both onboard aircraft and on the ground,” Andrew Haines, chief executive of the CAA, said in a statement. “We can’t rule out disruption, but the new arrangements that have been put in place since last year’s ash cloud mean the aviation sector is better prepared and will help to reduce any disruption in the event that volcanic ash affects U.K. airspace.”

Germany’s Transport Ministry today imposed rules regulating the conditions under which planes are allowed to fly when the airspace is contaminated with ash. While there is “no danger at present” to flights in Germany’s airspace from volcanic ash emanating from Iceland, the ministry said that “binding rules” have to be set in ash endangers air traffic.

Flights will be allowed under certain conditions up to a contamination of 2 milligrams per cubic meter and banned “in general” above that level, it said.

Plume Height

The height of the ash plume from the eruption diminished to 10 kilometers (6.3 miles) from 20 kilometers on May 21, according to Iceland’s Met Office. Meteorologists are using a new weather radar system to monitor the development.

Saturday’s eruption began at about 6 p.m., about 220 kilometers southeast of Reykjavik. The volcano’s latest venting ended in 2004. Grimsvotn and Eyjafjallajokull are about 150 kilometers apart.

Ash covered small towns on Iceland’s southeast cost immediately following the eruption. Last night a dark cloud of ash reached Reykjavik, prompting city officials to warn people with asthma or other breathing disorders against going outside.

To contact the reporters on this story: Omar R. Valdimarsson in Reykjavik valdimarsson@bloomberg.net; Steven Rothwell in London at srothwell@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tasneem Brogger at tbrogger@bloomberg.net; Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net

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