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Japan’s Carmakers May Lose 193,000 U.S. Sales, A.T. Kearney Says

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), Honda Motor Co. (7267) and other Japan-based automakers may lose as many as 193,000 U.S. vehicle sales to competitors this year because of parts shortages in their home country, an A.T. Kearney analyst said.

General Motors Co. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler Group LLC may have about 3,000 sales “up for grabs” because of quake-related disruptions, said Dan Cheng, lead partner of consultant A.T. Kearney’s automotive practice. A.T. Kearney computed the figures by estimating lost production for the U.S. market and accounting for brand-loyal customers who may defer purchases.

If full output in Japan doesn’t resume until the fourth quarter, disruptions from the quake may boost the number of all automakers’ U.S. sales that are up for grabs to 328,000, said Cheng, who’s based in Southfield, Michigan.

“It’s a pretty big deal in a very highly competitive market,” Cheng said today at a press conference in Birmingham, Michigan.

The biggest beneficiaries of the disruptions will be GM, Ford, Chrysler and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), South Korea’s largest automaker, Cheng said.

Industrywide U.S. automobile sales may rise to 13.2 million in 2011, which includes a 200,000-unit reduction as a result of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, he said.

The average of 18 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg last month was for 13 million total sales of cars and light trucks this year. Light-vehicle sales in 2010 rose to 11.6 million from a 27-year low in 2009.

New-vehicle deliveries may reach 16 million in 2013, in line with U.S. sales before the recession, Cheng said. The average from 2000 to 2007 was 16.8 million deliveries, according to Autodata Corp.

To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Trudell in Southfield, Michigan, at ctrudell1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jamie Butters at jbutters@bloomberg.net.

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