Chavez Ally Cements Lead in Peru Polls One Week Before Elections
Peruvian presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, cemented his lead in opinion polls a week before national elections that will probably trigger a runoff vote.
Humala, chief of the Andean country’s Nationalist Party, had 26 percent support in a poll published yesterday by Lima- based researcher Ipsos Apoyo, up from 21 percent a week earlier. He also consolidated his lead in a poll published yesterday by researcher CPI.
Humala has pledged to increase state control over South America’s sixth-largest economy and renegotiate contracts with foreign investors in the mining and natural gas industries. The surge in support for Humala, who was in fourth place in Ipsos Apoyo’s March 13 poll, led Peruvian bonds to post their biggest quarterly fall since 2008 in the first quarter. The Peruvian sol is the worst performer in the last month among 25 emerging- market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
“There’s no doubt that Humala is going to make it to the second round,” Julio Carrion, professor of Latin American politics at the University of Delaware, said in a phone interview from Newark. “Who he faces in the second round will determine whether or not he wins the presidency.”
A runoff between the two leading candidates will be held if no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round of balloting on April 10.
Virtual Tie
According to the Ipsos Apoyo poll, three other candidates were in a virtual tie for second place. Keiko Fujimori, a Peruvian congresswoman and daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori, had 18 percent in the poll, down from 19 percent a week earlier. Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo had 17 percent support, down from 20 percent, and former Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski had 16 percent, up from 15 percent.
Support for former Lima Mayor Luis Castaneda fell to 11 percent support from 14 percent.
Humala would be virtually tied in a runoff against either Fujimori, Kuczynski or Castaneda, and would lose by four percentage points to Toledo, the poll shows.
The survey of 2,000 people in 24 of Peru’s 25 regions was taken from March 26 to April 1 and published in El Comercio newspaper. The poll had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
Humala, a former army lieutenant colonel, said yesterday during a televised debate between the five leading candidates he supports an “open and market economy” and backs foreign investment that creates jobs.
According to the CPI poll published yesterday in the Correo newspaper, Humala had 29 percent support, Toledo had 20 percent, Fujimori had 19 percent, Kuczynski had 18 percent and Castaneda had 14 percent.
Researchers are barred from publishing presidential polls in Peru in the week before the vote, according to the country’s electoral board.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at jquigley8@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net.
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