Qaddafi's Forces Have Momentum in Libya War on Rebels, U.S. Officials Say
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s better-equipped forces have gained momentum against the rebels trying to drive him from power, senior U.S. intelligence officials said.
Appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that Qaddafi’s forces have superior logistics and that the “regime will prevail” if the war goes on for a long time. Clapper said this was his personal assessment and not that of the U.S. government, adding that Qaddafi has shown he’s “in this for the long haul.”
After Clapper completed his testimony on Capitol Hill, President Barack Obama’s national security adviser and his press secretary said that the intelligence chief was giving an analysis of the current situation and that steps being taken by the U.S. and its allies would change the dynamic in Libya.
“Change is the order of the day in the Middle East,” national security adviser Tom Donilon said on a conference call. “A static, uni-dimensional analysis does not take into account the steps that can be taken in cooperation with the opposition going forward.”
Donilon offered a broad defense of the administration’s response and argued that the turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East presented “an opportunity to transform the narrative that defined the Arab world for decades.” He outlined a five-point plan to increase pressure on Qaddafi and insisted that economic progress was just as important as political reform to help democracy take root in the region.
‘Tightly Focused’ Efforts
“We are very tightly focused on a range of efforts here to promote economic change and economic reform,” Donilon said.
Press secretary Jay Carney said in a separate briefing that while Qaddafi is “hunkering down,” asset freezes, an arms embargo and the possibility of military steps will “enhance the pressure on him to force him to leave.”
The testimony by Clapper and Army Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, may increase pressure for the U.S. to take military steps to support anti-government forces that are holding territory in eastern Libya. The rebels fled an oil hub on the Mediterranean coast in the face of a counterattack by troops loyal to Qaddafi.
Burgess said momentum “has started to shift” to Qaddafi.
“Whether or not it has fully moved to Qaddafi’s side is not clear at this time,” he said. “But we have now reached a state of equilibrium where the initiative may actually be on the regime side. We are watching that.”
Qaddafi “seems to have staying power,” Burgess said.
Air Strikes
Qaddafi’s forces yesterday resumed air strikes in the central area of Libya’s coastline that marks the east-west dividing line in the fighting, as the U.S. and its allies discussed whether and how to intervene.
“My own view is that the important dimension is logistics, and I think the regime has more logistical forces in terms of the first-line equipment,” Clapper said.
Qaddafi is relying primarily on two special brigades “which are very, very loyal,” Clapper said. “They are the most robustly equipped with Russian equipment to include air defense, artillery, tanks, mechanized equipment, and they appear to be more disciplined about how they treat and repair that equipment.
‘‘So I just think from the standpoint of attrition that over time, I mean -- this is kind of a stalemate back and forth, but I think over the longer term that the regime will prevail,’’ Clapper said.
Burgess said the Pentagon is tracking those units, the 32nd and 9th brigades.
A Divided Country
Clapper said a stalemate could result in Libya being divided, with Qaddafi’s regime based in his Tripoli stronghold and the rebels holding the territory around the eastern city of Benghazi. A more chaotic outcome, similar to Somalia, was also possible, he said.
Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, said a division of Libya could make it ‘‘fertile ground for al- Qaeda’’ and called for the world to intervene quickly.
Pressed by Arizona Republican Senator John McCain, who has advocated imposition of a no-fly zone, Clapper declined to speculate about how long it would take to establish an air umbrella over Libya.
Any no-fly zone would have to start with an attack on Libyan air defenses, some of which are in the hands of rebels, so that would need to be sorted out, Clapper said.
‘Not Helpful’
While McCain and Lieberman cited Clapper’s assessment to argue for intervention, Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said Clapper was ‘‘not helpful’’ to those opposing Qaddafi. Obama should replace Clapper who, ‘‘if he felt the need to say what he did,’’ should have done so in a closed-door setting, Graham said.
Carney said the U.S. and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will get plans for military options, including imposition of a no-fly zone, on March 15.
In the meantime, the U.S. is planning to send disaster assistance teams into eastern Libya to help with humanitarian aid, Donilon said. That effort won’t have any military component and is being done with the cooperation of rebel leaders, he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net
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