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Labour Leads SNP Ahead of Scottish Vote as LibDem Support Wanes

By Peter Woodifield -

Britain’s opposition Labour Party is on course to regain power in the Scottish Parliament as supporters of Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats defect, according to the latest opinion poll.

Labour led the Scottish National Party, which won the election in 2007 and formed a minority government, by as much as 16 percentage points ahead of the May 5 ballot in Scotland, a survey of voting intentions by TNS-BRMB showed.

The SNP’s support is virtually unchanged from 2007, while Labour has picked up voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, who formed the coalition government in the U.K. last year. The Liberal Democrats dropped five percentage points compared with a poll five months before, TNS-BRMB said.

Public support for the Liberal Democrats has fallen by more than half in Scotland since the last parliamentary elections in 2007 as the U.K. coalition imposes austerity measures designed to reduce the budget deficit.

Labour led Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s SNP by 49 percent to 33 percent in the constituency vote and by 47 percent to 33 percent in the regional vote. Voters cast two ballots for the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, one for a specific lawmaker and one for a party in the region.

Support for the Liberal Democrats stood at 7 percent for both votes, according to the survey. That compares with 16 percent support in the constituency vote in 2007 and 11 percent in the regional vote. The Conservatives had 9 percent backing in the latest poll, according to TNS-BMRB.

The Scottish government has powers over justice, health, education, the environment and some financial affairs under the devolution agreement that re-established the Scottish Parliament in 1999. Broader economic policies such as taxes and regulation, as well as foreign affairs, defense and energy, are reserved for the U.K. Parliament at Westminster in London.

TNS-BRMB polled 1,021 adults between Jan. 4 and Jan. 10. No margin of error was given.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Woodifield in Edinburgh at pwoodifield@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rodney Jefferson at r.jefferson@bloomberg.net