The size of the world economy will triple over the next four decades as emerging-market economies wield increasing power, HSBC Holdings Plc said.
Global growth will accelerate toward 3 percent a year, about a percentage point more than the first decade of this century, with developing nations contributing twice as much as the industrial world, the study by London-based economist Karen Ward concluded. Nineteen of the top 30 economies will be those currently described as emerging markets and they will form a larger bloc than their now developed counterparts after a fivefold expansion, her report said.
The study is the latest to suggest emerging markets will propel the world economy in coming decades. Standard Chartered Bank promotes a similar argument in declaring the world is in a “supercycle” and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. continues to back its “BRIC” strategy focused on the growing importance of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
“With the rapid growth of emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift,” said Ward.
China and India will be the largest and third-largest economies respectively by 2050, according to HSBC. The biggest losers will be nations with small, aging populations such as Switzerland and the Netherlands, it said.
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