Brazil Soy, Corn Farmers May Face Repeat of Drought that Hurt 13% of Crop
Brazil soybean and corn farmers may face a repeat of a 2005 drought that damaged 13 percent of the grain and oilseed crop, a government weather forecaster said.
Since October, the South has received below-average rain because of the La Nina weather pattern, raising concern crops being planted now will be damaged before next year’s harvest, said Expedito Rebello, head of research at the government’s Meteorology Institute, known as Inmet. The southern states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul account for 41 percent of Brazil’s corn output and 37 percent of its soybeans.
In 2005, total grain and oilseed production fell to 113.5 million metric tons, compared with an initial forecast of as much as 130.9 million tons, amid the worst drought in 40 years, according to Agriculture Ministry data. Similar damage may occur this year should dryness continue, according to Rebello.
“We’ve seen days with too much rain followed by long periods of drought, which isn’t good for soybeans and corn,” Rebello said in a telephone interview from Brasilia. “If dryness continues in December, we may see the 2005 phenomenon get repeated.”
Corn can’t tolerate more than 15 days without rain. Soybeans can take about 30 days of dry weather, with possible losses, he said. A better forecast on how the dry spell will affect the harvest will be available by Dec. 15, he said.
Soybeans Rise
Soybean futures for January delivery rose 20 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $12.2150 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 1:40 p.m. New York time. On Nov. 12, the oilseed reached $13.485, the highest for a most-active contract since Aug. 28, 2008.
Corn futures for December delivery dropped 5.5 cents, or 1 percent, to $5.2925 a bushel. On Nov. 9, the grain reached $6.05, the highest for the contract since Aug. 29, 2008.
Soybean growers in Brazil, the world’s largest producer after the U.S., will harvest between 67.7 million and 69 million tons next year, compared with 68.7 million tons this year, the Agriculture Ministry said on Nov. 10. Corn farmers will likely reap 51.8 million to 52.7 million tons in 2011, down from 56 million this year, the ministry said.
Recent rains in the Brazilian Southeast, including the states of Sao Paulo, Southern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, which grow about 85 percent of the country’s coffee output, will help the flowering of the nation’s coffee crop, Rebello said.
“The weather will help Brazil produce a good crop next year,” he said.
Brazil may harvest 47.2 million bags of coffee this year, compared with 39.5 million bags last year, the ministry said on Sept. 9. The first estimate for next year’s coffee harvest will be released in January.
To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Cortes in Brasilia at at kcortes@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dale Crofts at dcrofts@bloomberg.net.
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