U.S. October Leading Economic Indicators (Text)
Following is the text of the U.S. leading economic indicators from the Conference Board.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in October to 111.3 (2004=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI remains on an upward trend, suggesting the modest economic expansion will continue in the near term. The LEI’s growth has been slowing this year, but gains in the financial components helped its pickup in October.”
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The economy is slow, but latest data on the U.S. LEI suggest that change may be around the corner. Expect modest holiday sales, driven by steep discounting. But following a post-holiday lull, the indicators are suggesting a mild pickup this spring.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 101.5 (2004=100), following no change in September, and no change in August. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index increased 0.1 percent in October to 108.7 (2004=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component - primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
Index of supplier deliveries - vendor performance
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Money supply, M2
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Index of consumer expectations
The next release is scheduled for Friday, December 17, 2010 at 10 A.M. ET.
SOURCE: The Conference Board