Sugar Futures May Rise Next Week on Low Brazilian Supplies, Survey Shows

Sugar futures may rise on concerns about tight supplies from Brazil and other Latin American countries, a survey showed.

Nine traders, analysts and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg News said raw sugar will climb next week on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. One predicted a decline while another said he expects little change. The price has increased 1.7 percent this week to 28.71 cents a pound.

Crop damage in parts of Central America and Mexico may lead to a lower world surplus, Sergey Gudoshnikov, an economist at the London-based International Sugar Organization said on Oct. 26.

“There is a major concern among all regarding the Brazilian supply to last until May next year,” Jonathan Bouchet, a Geneva-based trader at OTCex Group, said by e-mail. “People are looking at sugar to go way above the 30-cent resistance.”

Nine of 11 survey respondents said refined sugar on NYSE Liffe in London will climb and one said it will decline. One predicted that prices will be little changed. The price has gained 3.2 percent this week to $729.30 a metric ton.

Four of 11 respondents said refined sugar’s premium over raw sweetener would widen and three said it would narrow. Four predicted little change.

In the attached chart, red bars are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates for raw sugar, with readings above zero signaling that most respondents expect higher prices. The green line shows raw-sugar prices, and the blue line shows white sugar.

Bullish on raw sugar:     9    Bearish: 1    Neutral: 1
Bullish on refined sugar: 9    Bearish: 1    Neutral: 1
Widening refined premium: 4    Narrow:  3    Neutral: 4

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Kay in London at ckay5@bloomberg.net; Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

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