Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Indian Soybean-Oil Imports to Drop, Patel Says

The following are the top stories on metals, agriculture and shipping.

ECONOMIC EVENTS, AGRIGULTURE EVENTS:

                                     Forecast  Prior     Time
                                                        (N.Y.)
MBA Mortgage Applications OCT 22              -10.5%      7:00
Durable Goods Orders SEP                2.0%   -1.3%      8:30
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air SEP      0.8%    4.1%      8:30
New Home Sales SEP                      300K    288K     10:00
New Home Sales MoM SEP                  4.2%    0.0%     10:00
USDA Broiler Egg Set OCT 22                   196095     15:00

Metal Prices: ($/ton)
                 Last  % Chg
Copper          8,440   -0.8
Aluminum        2,364   -1.1
Zinc            2,555   -2.5
Lead            2,559   -1.3
Nickel         23,000   -1.3
Tin            26,500   -0.8

Other Markets:
                       Last   %Chg      %YTD
U.S. Dollar Index    77.882   +0.2      -
Crude Oil            $82.13   -0.5      +3.5
Gold              $1,333.45   -0.5      +22
MSCI World Index   1,220.12   -0.3      +4.4

EXCLUSIVE:

India Soybean-Oil Imports to Slump on Cheaper Supplies

Soybean oil imports by India, the second-biggest user of cooking oils, will slump at least 19 percent next year as a record local harvest of soybeans brings cheaper domestic supplies, GG Patel & Nikhil Research Co. said.

INDUSTRIAL METALS:

Copper Declines for a Second Day as Rally Overdone, Dollar Gains

Copper declined for a second day as the dollar strengthened and on speculation that users in China, the world’s largest consumer, deem the recent rally as excessive given ample domestic supplies.

China 2010 Aluminum Consumption Better Than Expected

China’s aluminum surplus is likely to narrow next year, as strong growth in consumption will absorb an increase an output, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

Aluminum Shipments by Japan Expand for 10th Month

Japan’s shipments of rolled-aluminum products increased 8.5 percent in September, expanding for the 10th straight month, led by demand from can makers.

Copper-Alloy Product Output in Japan Extends Increase

Japan’s output of copper and copper-alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, jumped 13.6 percent in September from a year earlier, increasing for the 11th month, an industry group said.

China 2010 Aluminum Use Better Than Expected, Antaike Says

China’s aluminum surplus this year is estimated at 350,000 metric tons, down from an earlier forecast of 800,000 tons due to strong consumption growth, said Li Yang, an analyst at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

MINING:

BHP May Do Cash Return If Potash Bid Fails, Morgan Stanley Says

BHP Billiton Ltd. may return $4.54 in cash a share to shareholders if its bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. fails, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Oriental Peninsula Rises to Record on Nickel Shipment Outlook

Oriental Peninsula Resources Group Inc. advanced to a record in Manila trading after the Philippine miner said it may make its first nickel shipment either in December or January.

Macarthur Forecasts Profit Lower Than Some Estimates

Macarthur Coal Ltd., the world’s largest producer of pulverized coal used in steelmaking, forecast first-half profit of A$115 million ($112 million) to A$125 million, lower than some analyst estimates.

Fortescue Sells $2.04 Billion of High-Yield Debt in Record Sale

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-largest producer of iron ore, sold $2.04 billion of five-year notes in the biggest sale of junk-rated U.S. dollar bonds by an Australian company.

Gertken Says Rare-Earth Issue May ‘Peter Off’ Over Time: Video

Matt Gertken, senior China analyst at Stratfor, talks about concerns over a cut in China’s exports of rare-earth minerals.

Polymetal’s Nesis Says Ukraine Next Target for Expansion: Video

Vitaly Nesis, chief executive officer of OAO Polymetal, talks with Bloomberg’s Ilya Khrennikov about the outlook for production at Russia’s third-largest miner of gold and silver.

PRECIOUS METALS:

Gold Declines on Dollar Rise; Palladium Gains to Nine-Year High

Gold declined for the first time in four days after the dollar advanced, curbing demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Palladium increased to a nine-year high.

Silver to Extend Rally to $26, Zeman Says: Technical Analysis

Silver prices, already outperforming gold and copper, will extend a rally to a 30-year high, according to technical analysis by Matthew Zeman, a trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago.

AGRICULTURE:

Soybeans Drop From 2-Year High; Rice Slips for First Day in 12

Soybeans dropped for the first day in three on speculation that a rally to a two-year high and the dollar’s advance may slow demand. Wheat rose for a fourth day.

Palm Oil Declines for Second Day as Commodities Slide on Dollar

Palm oil dropped for a second day after reaching a 27-month high this week as a rebound in the dollar dented the appeal of commodities.

Rice Imports May Surge 11 Times If Tariffs Removed, Japan Says

Japan’s rice imports may surge 11 times from the 770,000 metric tons a year bought now should it remove tariffs on overseas supplies under a free-trade agreement with exporters proposed by Prime Minister Naoto Kan.

Australia Wheat Exports to Saudi Arabia to Surge, CBH Forecasts

Saudi Arabia may become one of Australia’s largest wheat markets as the country’s imports rise and after changes to tender specifications this year opened access to the trade, according to forecasts by CBH Group.

Vietnam Wins Orders for 6.8 Million Tons of Rice, VnEconomy Says

Vietnamese exporters have contracted to sell 6.8 million metric tons of rice this year, newswire VnEconomy said, citing Pham Van Bay, vice chairman of the Vietnam Food Association.

China Bought 250,000 Tons Soyoil From South America, Center Says

China bought 250,000 metric tons of soybean oil from South America this week, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said in an e-mailed daily report.

Australia Bulk-Wheat Stocks Drop to 5.1 Million Tons, ABS Says

Wheat stockpiles in bulk storage in Australia dropped 24 percent from August to 5.1 million metric tons at the end of September, according to data on the Australian Bureau of Statistics website today.

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Rubber in Shanghai Extends Losses, Falling as Much as 2.8%

Rubber futures in Shanghai plunged as much as 2.8 percent, extending an earlier drop. The May-delivery contract declined to 31,750 yuan a ton before trading at 32,075 yuan as of 12:29 p.m. Tokyo time.

Rubber Supply Squeeze to ‘Worsen’ in Fourth Quarter

A natural rubber supply shortage will likely “worsen” in the fourth quarter as unseasonal rainfall continues to disrupt production from key growers, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said.

Cocoa Grindings in Brazil Advance 4.3% on Month, Hartmann Says

Cocoa grindings in Brazil rose 4.3 percent in September to 338,849 bags compared with August, according to analyst Thomas Hartmann.

Cocoa Arrivals From Brazil’s Bahia Advance 42%, Hartmann Says

Cocoa arrivals from Bahia, Brazil’s biggest growing region, jumped 42 percent in the latest week and “high volumes are due to persist,” according to analyst Thomas Hartmann.

LIVESTOCK:

U.S. Meatpackers May Kill Fewer Hogs Than Forecast

University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain reduced his forecast for the U.S. hog slaughter in 2011 because of rising feed costs.

WEATHER:

La Nina Remains Moderate-to-Strong, Bureau of Meteorology Says

The La Nina in the Pacific Ocean remained moderate-to- strong event and was likely to persist into at least early 2011, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said.

EXCHANGES:

Singapore’s ASX Bid Makes HKEx’s Mining Plan Tougher

A merger between Singapore Exchange Ltd. and ASX Ltd. will make it harder for Hong Kong to win offerings by commodity companies and achieve an expansion plan announced this year, the chairman of the Hong Kong bourse said.

ECONOMIES:

S. Korea Economic Growth Slowed to 0.7% as Won Jumped

South Korea’s economy slowed in the third quarter as the nation’s surging currency threatened exports and global growth cooled, signaling more room for the central bank to pause interest-rate increases.

OTHER MARKETS:

Oil Snaps Three-Day Gain on Dollar Strength, Crude Stockpiles

Oil dropped, snapping three days of gains, as investors sold contracts against a strengthening dollar and on speculation U.S. crude stockpiles climbed to the highest since June.

Dollar Rises to 1-Week High on Prospect Easing to Revive Growth

The dollar rose to a one-week high against the euro amid speculation increased debt purchases by the Federal Reserve will help revive economic growth.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claire Leow in Singapore at cleow@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

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