La Nina Event Strengthens, May Bring Rain to Australia, Drought in Brazil
A La Nina event, which has brought wet weather to Australia and Indonesia and drought to Brazil, has strengthened, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures had continued to cool and trade winds were stronger than normal, the Melbourne-based bureau said on its website today. The event, characterized by colder-than-usual sea-surface temperatures, will persist into at least early 2011, the bureau said.
Record rain is slowing sugar-cane harvesting in Australia, the third-largest exporter, and raised concerns that it may reduce wheat quality, even after bringing the best seasonal conditions to some areas in more than a decade. Wet weather in Indonesia, associated with the La Nina, has disrupted rubber tapping and curbed tin output, according to producers.
“We have an event which is well established and expected to continue,” Robyn Duell senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology said today by phone. “The odds are in favor of a wetter-than-normal coming three months for much of northern and eastern Australia.”
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped 0.4 percent to $7.0725 at 4:48 p.m. Melbourne time. Raw sugar for March delivery on ICE Futures U.S. in New York yesterday touched an eight-month high of 27.70 cents per pound.
La Nina conditions may “possibly further strengthen” during the next four to six months, the United Nations’ Geneva- based World Meteorological Organization said in a statement yesterday on its website.
Rainfall Link
Still, the strength of the event didn’t necessarily correlate with further increases in rain in Australia, once the conditions for above-normal falls were established, Duell said.
La Nina occurs on average every three to five years and can last nine to 12 months, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The event can intensify hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean and bring dry weather to parts of South America.
Corn production in Brazil, the third-largest producer, may fall as much as 7.5 percent next year as below-average rainfall pares yields and planted area, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop- forecasting agency said Oct. 7.
Sugar output in Australia may drop by 4.5 percent to 4.2 million metric tons because of rain, Canegrowers said Oct. 4. The rain has raised concerns that more heavy falls in Queensland may crimp coal output, UBS AG said in an Oct. 7 report.
The rubber price in Indonesia surged to a record after rains disrupted tapping, Asril Sutan Amir, chairman of the Rubber Association of Indonesia said yesterday. State-owned PT Timah may produce 40,000 tons of tin this year compared with a 45,000-ton target, Corporate Secretary Abrun Abubakar said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Pugh in Melbourne at wpugh@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net
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