Tropical Storm Igor Heads West, Forecast to Be Major Hurricane

Tropical Storm Igor strengthened off the coast of Africa and is forecast to become a hurricane by this weekend on a track that will take it due west over some of the Atlantic’s warmest water, the National Hurricane Center said.

Igor, which has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, is encountering high winds and a low pressure system that may initially impede its growth, the center said in an analysis today. It will be past that in 24 to 48 hours.

“In the longer range, there is plenty of warm water and light shear forecast in the path of Igor, which would promote the development of a large and powerful hurricane,” the center’s forecast analysis said.

Wind shear is a powerful current of air that tears at a hurricane’s structure and holds back its growth.

Igor, the ninth named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, will travel over water that is breaking records for ocean warmth. Hurricanes draw energy from hotter water, and sea surface temperatures in the area were 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal during the last week in August.

“This one could be a fairly large and intense hurricane by virtue of its long over-water trajectory,” said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “Whether this becomes a threat to the U.S. East Coast or Gulf of Mexico is too early to call.”

Official Track

The official center track has the storm moving west across the Atlantic and becoming a hurricane this weekend.

Rouiller said it will be five to seven days before Igor is in a position to threaten the U.S. He predicted it will grow into a major hurricane with winds of at least 111 mph by then.

At about 4:45 p.m. East Coast time, Igor was 75 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde islands, according to the hurricane center. Cape Verde’s government has issued a tropical storm watch for Maio, Sao Tiago, Fogo and Brava, the southernmost islands in the chain. The storm is moving west at 6 mph.

Rouiller said another wave moving off Africa into the Atlantic also has potential to develop into a storm.

“I am going to be watching this system just as close,” Rouiller said. “It is looking pretty formidable.”

Last week, the U.S. East Coast was scraped by Hurricane Earl, which then weakened and went ashore in Canada. Texas is dealing today with record-setting rain and flooding from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine, which made landfall earlier this week along the Mexican border.

At this point last year, only six named storms had formed, according to hurricane center records. Nine storms received names in 2009.

The hurricane center is watching three other systems in the Atlantic for potential growth. One, the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, has almost no chance of becoming a storm in the next two days.

The second, near Venezuela, as well as the third, north of Igor in the Atlantic, have a 10 percent chance of developing, the hurricane center said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.

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