China May Outstrip U.S. Retail Sales at $5 Trillion by 2016, Official Says
China’s retail sales may outstrip those of the U.S. by reaching 34 trillion yuan ($5 trillion) in 2016, Huang Hai, a former Chinese assistant commerce minister, said today.
The forecast is based on annual growth so far this century of 14.5 percent in China and 4.6 percent in the U.S., Huang said at a forum in Beijing. He’s now an economics official with the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which advises the nation’s legislature.
China’s economy overtook Japan in the second quarter to become the world’s second largest and is growing at three times the pace of the United States. Stronger Chinese demand may help to sustain world growth by reducing international imbalances in saving and spending.
“China will replace the U.S. in the long run as the number one source of global demand,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based senior economist at Credit Agricole.
Chinese and U.S. figures for retail sales are calculated differently and China’s ascent to the top spot would be “much later” using comparable data, Kowalczyk said. The Chinese figures include some government spending.
China’s retail sales growth may slow after 2016 to about 10 percent, with the total annual value exceeding 50 trillion yuan by 2020, Huang said today. The nation will take a “considerable” time to overtake the U.S. in terms of final consumption, combining goods and services, Huang said.
--Li Yanping, Sophie Leung. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Lily Nonomiya.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or yli16@bloomberg.net
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