Soybean Imports by China May Climb 5.8% as Crush, Storage Capacity Grows

Soybean imports by China may advance as much as 5.8 percent in the 2010-2011 year as growing crushing and storage capacity spurs purchases, said Frank Zhou, general manager, soybean trading, at Cargill Investment (China) Ltd.

Inbound shipments may increase to 55 million metric tons from at least 52 million tons in the previous year, he said today at a conference organized by Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. in Tianjin. He said he was expressing a personal view.

“It’s hard to see next year’s imports decline from this year’s 52 million tons” given the pace of orders, said Zhou. Most crushers had expressed the intention to import more ”in private conversations,” he added. China’s crushing capacity may soon reach 100 million tons, almost double the volume of just over 50 million tons, he said.

The growth in China’s demand for soybean meal is faster than soybean oil as consumers spend more of their incremental incomes on animal protein than in Japan or the U.S., he said. The country will require fewer imports of soybean oil because the growing crush will supply its needs, he said.

The domestic soybean meal price in China is supported by higher seasonal demand in the fourth quarter and the increased costs of imported beans, said Zhou. “There is little room for the price to fall,” he said.

--William Bi. Editor: James Poole

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