North Korea's First Party Congress in 30 Years May Discuss Kim's Successor

North Korea is preparing its biggest political gathering in 30 years, fueling speculation Kim Jong Il may use the forum to legitimatize a transfer of power to his youngest son as his own takeover was ensured at a 1980 summit.

Delegates from the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea held meetings in the past week ahead of the congress to pledge loyalty to Kim, according to reports published by the official Korean Central News Agency. Troops and tanks have been deployed near the capital, Pyongyang, for military parades to mark the gathering, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Aug. 24.

Kim, 68, made his second trip this year to China in late August in what analysts said was an effort to win the endorsement of his closest ally for a power transfer to his son, Kim Jong Un. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao lauded the congress as “a political event of great significance,” KCNA said Sept. 2.

“It is clear that Kim Jong Il’s visit is related to the September congress,” William Callahan, professor of international politics at the University of Manchester. “It is popular now to read Chinese diplomacy in terms of its imperial tributary system. Korean kings always had to seek the recognition from the Chinese emperor.”

Kim signaled to Chinese President Hu Jintao during his trip that he is willing to resume six-party talks to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Aug. 30. The forum, which also includes Japan, the U.S., Russia and South Korea, hasn’t met since December 2008.

Mystery Son

Little is known outside North Korea about Kim Jong Un, who may be in his late 20’s. He attended the International School of Berne in Switzerland, according to media reports including the Seoul-based Dong-A Ilbo newspaper.

KCNA has never mentioned the son by name and China didn’t say whether he accompanied his father during the most recent visit as speculated by South Korean media.

North Korea said on June 26 that a party congress would convene in early September to elect “its highest leading body,” without specifying dates. The meeting will be held on Sept. 4-7, Good Friends, a Seoul-based rights group, which claims to have sources in the communist country, said on its website on Sept. 1.

The congress may be aimed at “the reorganization of its leadership structure,” according to South Korea’s Unification Ministry. Kim cemented his position as successor to his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, in the 1980 meeting, getting elected to key party posts.

Party Coming Back

Kim’s latest visit to China was likely made to brief Hu on the leadership changes that will take place at the congress, Glyn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament, told reporters on Sept. 3 in Beijing after returning from a four-day trip to Pyongyang that ended on Aug. 31.

“The party is coming back in a fairly big way,” Ford said, citing proliferation of party posters throughout the city and leadership shuffles at key posts.

Speculation of a power transfer comes as North Korea becomes increasingly dependent on China to improve its faltering economy, a key element of its goal to become a “strong and prosperous country” by 2012. North Korea’s economy shrank 0.9 percent to 24.7 trillion won ($21 billion) in 2009, with trading falling 11 percent, after the United Nations toughened sanctions against the country for its second nuclear test in May last year, according to the Bank of Korea in Seoul.

China, host of the six-party nuclear talks, is also spearheading diplomatic efforts to resume the discussions, sending its special envoy for the Korea peninsula affairs, Wu Dawei, to South Korea and the U.S.

South Korea, backed by the U.S., refused to resume the disarmament negotiations after it accused North Korea of torpedoing one of its warships in March, which killed 46 sailors.

“By dragging North Korea back into the six-party talks China wants to regain control and curtail the maneuvering space of Washington, Tokyo and Seoul in this matter and in the region,” said Rudiger Frank, professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna. “It is obvious that China and the U.S. compete over at least regional supremacy.”

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Bomi Lim at blim30@bloomberg.net

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