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La Nina Weather Event `Established,' May Persist into 2011, Bureau Says
A La Nina event, which can bring above-average rain to Australia and parts of Asia and drier weather to the southern U.S., has strengthened and may persist at least into early 2011, according to Australia’s forecaster.
The central Pacific Ocean had cooled significantly in the past two weeks and a La Nina was “well established,” the Melbourne-based Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today. Indian Ocean temperatures also pointed to a chance of increased rainfall over southern Australia, the bureau said.
La Nina events can disrupt farm output in Asia and intensify hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean. Above- average rainfall in parts of eastern Australia, the fourth- largest wheat exporter, has boosted the winter crop production outlook this year, increased irrigation water supplies for cotton and delayed sugar cane cutting.
“We have just had a very La Nina-looking August and it looks like in the first week of spring there is a low pressure system that is going to develop and bring quite a bit of rainfall to areas of southern and eastern Australia,” bureau senior climatologist Robyn Duell said by phone. The trend could continue, based on the Pacific Ocean indicators, she said.
Rural confidence in Australia increased to a two-and-a- half year high this quarter following consistent rain in the country’s east and increased commodity prices, Rabobank Groep NV said in a report Aug. 30. Rain is typically needed in spring, which starts today in Australia, to complete crop development.
Spring Outlook
“If we have a good, average spring the crop is well positioned to take advantage of it,” Chris Sounness, acting grains program manager at the Victorian Primary Industries Department, said by phone today from Horsham. Some areas in the state’s south and east were at risk of becoming too wet, he said.
La Nina occurs on average every three to five years and can last nine to 12 months, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Some events have lasted as long as two years. The agency said Aug. 5 that a La Nina had formed.
A warming of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and cooler waters in the west, the so-called negative Indian Ocean Dipole, may also have started and tended to bring increased rain to southern Australia, the bureau said. The link is weaker in southwest Western Australia, where grain areas have received below-average rain this winter, according to the bureau’s data.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Pugh in Melbourne at wpugh@bloomberg.net
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