South Africa Posts Trade Surplus for Second Month as Coal Exports Increase

South Africa posted a trade surplus for a second consecutive month in July as coal shipments surged following the end of a transport workers strike that shut ports and railways.

The surplus narrowed to 2 billion rand ($270 million) from 5.6 billion rand in June, the South African Revenue Service said in an e-mailed statement today. The median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a balanced trade account.

Transnet Ltd., the state-owned port and rail operator, said on May 28 it may take as long as two months to clear a backlog after an 18-day strike by workers over pay. South Africa may return to trade deficits in coming months as consumer spending recovers, boosting demand for imports.

“We continue to expect a stream of trade deficits this year, albeit milder in nature,” Shireen Darmalingam, an economist at Standard Bank Group Ltd., said in a note to clients. “While there is scope for exports to thrive as global economic activity picks up pace, it is questionable whether we will see strong enough increases in exports to steer the trade balance away from deficit territory.”

Last month’s surplus may help to narrow the current account deficit and underpin the rand’s 3 percent gain against the dollar in the past six months. The current account gap, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, reached 4.6 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter.

Rand Gains

The rand strengthened to 7.3767 against the dollar as of 4:10 p.m. from 7.4020 before the data was released.

Exports increased 0.8 percent from the previous month to 56 billion rand as coal shipments climbed 23 percent and vehicles sales rose 7 percent, the revenue service said. Richards Bay Coal Terminal, Africa’s largest, said on Aug. 4 that shipments increased by 48 percent in July after Transnet resumed operations.

Imports gained 8.1 percent to 54 billion rand, mainly due to a 23 percent jump in oil and 16 percent increase in equipment parts.

Trade figures are often volatile, reflecting the timing of shipments of commodities such as oil and diamonds.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net.

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