OPEC Raises Its Forecasts for Worldwide Oil Demand for This Year and Next

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted its global oil demand forecast for this year and next as emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America push consumption higher.

OPEC bolstered its outlook for 2010 and 2011 by 140,000 barrels a day each in its monthly report today. Worldwide crude oil use will increase by 1.05 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, next year to average 86.56 million a day, the organization’s Vienna-based secretariat said.

“Global economic recovery is projected to continue through the whole of 2011 with an even distribution between the first and second half of the year,” OPEC said in the report. Still, “oil demand growth will remain moderate” because of uncertainties about the pace of recovery.

Crude oil futures climbed 78 percent last year as the global economy emerged from the worst financial crisis since World War II, and traded around $76 a barrel in New York today. OPEC anticipates demand in Asian countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, such as China, to grow by 200,000 barrels a day next year to 10.25 million a day.

OPEC expects that next year’s additional demand will increase the world’s need for its crude. The amount of OPEC oil needed to balance global supply and demand, known as the call- on-OPEC, will be about 28.9 million barrels a day in 2011. That’s about 200,000 barrels a day, or 0.7 percent, higher than this year’s requirement, and 93,000 a day more than the forecast made in last month’s report.

Lower Estimate

OPEC’s estimate for oil consumption for next year is about 1 million barrels a day lower than that of the International Energy Agency, which released its monthly report on Aug. 11. The IEA, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations, forecasts global demand of 87.9 million barrels a day.

OPEC raised its estimate for supplies from outside the organization by 60,000 barrels a day each for this year and next. Non-OPEC producers will bolster output by 790,000 barrels a day this year to average 51.92 million a day, and next year by 350,000 barrels a day to 52.27 million a day, according to the report.

Non-OPEC supply growth in 2011 will be driven by projects in Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Colombia and Kazakhstan, according to the report.

OPEC’s implementation of record supply cuts announced in late 2008 has dropped as rebounding oil prices encourage members to exceed their production limits.

The 11 OPEC nations bound by quotas raised production by 120,000 barrels a day last month compared with June, according to the report. Those members, which exclude Iraq, pumped 26.86 million barrels a day in July. That puts compliance with agreed output cuts at 52 percent, down from a revised 55 percent in June.

OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The organization’s next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 14 in Vienna.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

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