Corn Crop May Increase 1.9% on More Acreage, Favorable Weather, USDA Says
The U.S. corn crop will be 1.9 percent larger than a year ago and the biggest ever, the government said, after farmers planted the second-most acres since 1946 and warm, wet weather boosted yields.
Growers will harvest 13.365 billion bushels (339.5 million metric tons), up from a record 13.11 billion last year and more than the 13.245 billion bushels forecast last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in its first survey-based estimate for the crop. The average estimate of 28 analysts questioned by Bloomberg News was for 13.255 billion.
“We are going to have a good crop,” said Dale Durchholz, a market analyst for AgriVisor Services Inc. in Bloomington, Illinois. “This report is a good jumping-off point, but the crop is uneven and needs some cooler temperatures and rains this month to reach full yield potential.”
Yesterday, corn futures for December delivery rose 2 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $4.11 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Before today, the commodity gained 19 percent since June 29, the day before the government said U.S. farmers planted less this year than they had planned.
Bigger supplies of corn may reduce costs for Archer Daniels Midland Co., the largest ethanol processor, and Tyson Foods Inc., the top U.S. meat producer, which buys the grain for feed.
Planted Acreage
Farmers planted 87.872 million acres (35.6 million hectares) with corn this year, up 1.6 percent from last year. About 93.527 million acres were sown with corn in 2007.
The yield will average a record 165 bushels per acre, a 1 percent increase from 163.5 bushels estimated in July and up from 164.7 bushels last year, the USDA said. Traders surveyed by Bloomberg expected 163.84 bushels, on average.
Reserves on Aug. 31, 2011, the end of the next marketing year, will total 1.312 billion bushels, down from 1.373 billion forecast in July and below the 1.426 billion bushels on hand year earlier, the USDA said.
World output in the crop year that begins Oct. 1 will be 831.6 million tons, down from 832.38 million forecast a month ago and up 2.9 percent from 808.45 million produced last year, the USDA said.
China’s Crop
Corn production outside the U.S. will fall to 492.1 million tons in the marketing year that begins Oct. 1 from 495.9 million forecast in July and up from 475.4 million this year. China, the second-biggest producer and consumer will harvest 166 million, unchanged from July and up from 155 million this year.
Global consumption is forecast to rise to a record 831.4 million tons, from 830.9 million tons projected in July and 816.9 million this year.
Worldwide inventories at the end of the next marketing year will be 139.2 million tons, down 1.3 percent from 141.1 million tons predicted a month ago, and up from 139 million expected this year, the USDA said.
In the U.S., weather conditions over the next month are crucial for corn production as plants finish transferring starch and sugars from the leaves to the kernels, which determines final yield.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net
Rate this Page