Asian Nations Beef Up Military, Cosy Up to U.S. in Face of China's Rise

 
By John Pomfret
     Aug. 9 (Washington Post) -- The nations of Southeast Asia
are building up their militaries, buying submarines and jet
fighters at a record pace and edging closer strategically to the
United States as a hedge against China's rise and its claims to
all of the South China Sea.
     Weapons acquisitions in the region almost doubled from 2005
to 2009 compared with the five preceding years, according to data
released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
this year.
     "There is a threat perception among some of the countries in
Southeast Asia," said Siemon Wezeman, senior fellow at the
institute. "China is an issue there."
     The buying spree is set to continue, with reports that
Vietnam has agreed to pay $2.4 billion for six Russian Kilo-class
submarines and a dozen Su-30MKK jet fighters equipped for
maritime warfare. This is in addition to Australia's stated
commitment to buy or build nine more submarines and bolster its
air force with 100 U.S.-built F-35s. Malaysia has also paid more
than $1 billion for two diesel submarines from France, and
Indonesia has recently announced that it, too, will acquire new
submarines.
     Concerns in Southeast Asia about China's rise were on
display in Hanoi in mid-July during a regional security forum
that included the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the
United States, China and other Asian powers. During the meeting,
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton for the first time
effectively rejected China's claims to sovereignty over the whole
1.3 million-square-mile sea. Eleven other nations, led by
Vietnam, backed the United States, leaving Chinese foreign
minister Yang Jiechi noticeably shaken by the offensive,
diplomats present said.
     The U.S. and Southeast Asian push on China came in part
because, U.S. and Asian officials said, China's behavior has
turned more aggressive in the region.
     China has converted several warships for use by its maritime
services and dispatched them to the region. On June 23, an
Indonesian naval craft was pushed out of waters claimed by
Indonesia after a ship from the Chinese fishery administration --
one of the former warships -- trained a heavy machine gun on the
Indonesian boat. Over the past year, China's maritime fleet has
seized at least 22 Vietnamese fishing vessels, according to
Vietnamese media reports. China has also unilaterally issued
fishing bans for disputed waters.
     On Thursday, Vietnam accused China of violating its
sovereignty by conducting seismic exploration near disputed
islands in the South China Sea. Vietnamese foreign ministry
spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga said Chinese vessels had been
conducting seismic exploration activities since the end of May
near an island in the Paracels, which Vietnam claims, as well as
at oil and gas plots on its continental shelf.
     "Vietnam demands that China immediately cease and stop the
recurrence of these violations of Vietnam's sovereignty," she
said.
     For years, experts have predicted that China's "soft power"
and growing economy would allow it to dominate the region. But as
China's diplomacy turned more aggressive, the region has defied
those predictions and looked to Washington for help.
     "Rather than using the rise of China as a strategic
counterweight to American primacy," concluded a report by
Australia's Lowy Institute for International Policy this year,
"most countries in Asia seem to be quietly bandwagoning with the
United States to balance against China's future power potential."
     In 2009, when asked to choose a country that would be the
greatest source of peace and stability in the region in 10 years,
"strategic elites" in the region overwhelmingly choose the United
States, according to a survey conducted by the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The country
that posed the greatest threat to the region, the survey found,
was not North Korea but China.
     Experts generally agree that Vietnam's weapons acquisitions
program is the most significant because it appears singularly
focused on deterring China. In essence, Vietnam is attempting to
make its coastal defenses strong enough so that China will think
twice about pushing its claims.
     "Vietnam is spending a lot of money and focusing on the sea
with submarines and fighters and even missiles," said Carl
Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
     Vietnam has reached out to a variety of partners. It has a
strong relationship with India, one of China's main competitors
in the region. Indian forces, which also deploy in Russian-built
Kilo-class submarines, are believed to be training Vietnamese
sailors for sub duty. But Vietnam is also growing increasingly
close to the United States.
     U.S. and Vietnamese military and government officials meet
regularly. There's talk of a strategic relationship. Senior
meetings on formalizing a military relationship are expected this
year. Trade between the nations is booming, up from $2.91 billion
in 2002 to $15.4 billion in 2009.
     After it participated in military exercises with South Korea
in mid-July, the carrier USS George Washington was in Vietnamese
waters last week, feting senior Vietnamese officials. China had
criticized the United States for conducting military exercises
with South Korea. Vietnam, however, welcomed the U.S. Navy.
     The United States is also moving to bolster Vietnam's
nuclear power industry. According to congressional testimony in
May by Vann H. Van Diepen, assistant secretary of state for
international security and nonproliferation, the two countries
signed a memorandum of understanding on civil nuclear cooperation
in March. The two countries are also working on arrangements that
would allow Vietnam to enrich its own uranium to generate energy.
In November, Vietnam's National Assembly approved construction of
its first two nuclear power plants. It has plans to build eight
to 10 more.

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