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Wheat Harvest in Germany May Drop 8.7% on Drought, Heat, Toepfer Estimates
Germany’s wheat harvest, Europe’s second-largest, may fall as much as 8.7 percent on dry weather and “extremely high” temperatures, Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH said, reversing a forecast for a gain.
Wheat production may be between 23 million and 24 million metric tons this year, down from 25.2 million tons in 2009, the Hamburg-based grain trader said in an e-mailed report today. Toepfer last month forecast the crop would rise to as much as 25.8 million tons.
“The dry conditions in the last six weeks and the extremely high daytime temperatures have affected the yield potential of crops in many places,” Toepfer said. “Wheat and summer barley are expected to be the most severely affected.”
Milling wheat for November delivery traded in Paris has jumped 29 percent in July on concern that drought will hurt wheat crops in Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as Germany and France, reducing export availability. France is the EU’s largest wheat grower, data from the 27-nation bloc shows.
“The harvest in Germany is in full swing,” the trader said. “In southern Germany, the first wheat and rapeseed have already been threshed, and winter barley is about to be harvested in the north.”
Germany’s barley crop is expected to drop 19 percent to 10 million tons from 12.3 million tons in 2009, Toepfer said. The outlook was cut from 10.2 million to 10.7 million tons in June.
For wheat and spring barley, “the heat set in during the seed-filling phase, which is important to crop development,” the grain trader said.
Grain Crop
Overall German grain production will fall to between 44 million and 45 million tons, as much as 11 percent below last year’s 49.6 million-ton harvest, Toepfer said. The forecast range was cut by 2.5 million tons.
“As a result of growth starting later due to the long winter and cold, damp weather conditions in May, rapeseed and winter barley in particular were late to mature,” Toepfer said. As a result, the harvest of winter barley, rapeseed and wheat is “very close together, which is expected to pose logistical problems to both farms and originators.”
The German rapeseed crop, the biggest in the EU, may slide 13 percent to 5.5 million tons from 6.3 million tons a year earlier, Topefer said. Last month it had forecast output of the oilseed would be 5.6 million to 5.9 million tons.
“The weather conditions have also damaged rapeseed,” Toepfer said. “Extremely low yields are not likely here, as the plant’s long roots enable it to use water from deeper layers of soil when the top soil has already dried out.”
Growing conditions for corn have been “poor” so far because of cold, damp weather in May and the current dry conditions and heat, according to Toepfer. Rain in coming weeks may improve the situation for corn, the report shows.
The trader currently forecasts the German corn harvest will fall 13 percent to 4 million tons from 4.6 million tons in 2009. The outlook was cut from 4.2 million to 4.7 million tons in June.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net.
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