Crude Futures Seen Falling This Week as U.S. Inventories, Imports Increase

Crude oil may fall next week amid increases in U.S. oil supplies and OPEC production, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Fifteen of 36 analysts, or 42 percent, forecast crude oil will decline through Aug. 6. Twelve respondents, or 33 percent, predicted that futures will rise, and nine, or 25 percent, forecast prices would be little changed.

Crude oil inventories climbed 7.31 million barrels to 360.8 million last week, an Energy Department report showed. Imports increased 12 percent to 11.2 million barrels a day, the highest level since Aug. 25, 2006. Imports in states along the Gulf of Mexico jumped to a record 7.21 million.

“Rising inventories and rising OPEC production point to an ongoing surplus and downward risk for prices,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Crude oil for September delivery fell 3 cents this week to $78.36 a barrel, its smallest weekly move in actual-price terms on the New York Mercantile Exchange since December 2003. Prices were up 18 percent from a year ago and rose 4.4 percent in July.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ oil output increased for the third time in four months in July, led by gains in Iraq, the one member not subject to a quota, a Bloomberg News survey showed. OPEC production rose by 80,000 barrels, or 0.3 percent, to an averageHW8K7Z9WHGPG&peplid=3725416&pepllastname=Yee&peplfirstname=Kai_Pin&peplcompanyname=Bloomberg_News&peplcompanynumber=604972&pepltitle=No_Title_Info&interviewstatus=0&interviewdate=2010-07-02_08_28_35&interviewreporterpepl=0&intervieweditorpepl=6614401&interviewsource=News_Reporter_Software&srange=6454&erange=6465">Yee Kai Pin and Christian Schmollinger in Singapore, Michio Nakayama in Tokyo and Grant Smith in London. Editors: Joe Link, Charlotte Porter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

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