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New Zealand Posts $199 Million Trade Surplus in June, Lagging Estimates
New Zealand’s trade surplus narrowed in June as a seasonal decline in farm production and falling prices curbed exports.
The surplus shrank to NZ$276 million ($199 million) from a revised NZ$768 million in May, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington. That was less than the NZ$368 million median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of seven economists.
New Zealand’s commodity-export prices eased in June from a record high the previous month, led by dairy and aluminum, according to an ANZ National Bank Ltd. index. Exports, which make up 30 percent of gross domestic product, are expected to be underpinned by demand from China, the biggest customer for New Zealand milk.
“Exports are likely to be continuing to benefit from high commodity prices and Chinese demand,” Philip Borkin, an economist at Goldman Sachs JBWere Ltd. in Auckland, said ahead of the report.
The monthly figures aren’t seasonally adjusted and New Zealand’s exports typically increase between February and May as milk, wool and meat production peaks.
The surplus compared with a NZ$331 million deficit a year earlier. As a result, the annual trade surplus widened to NZ$639 million, the most since March 2002.
Export Decline
Exports fell 9.8 percent from a record in May to NZ$3.78 billion, today’s report showed. Sales of dairy products, meat, crude oil and fruit led the declines.
From a year earlier, exports rose 17 percent, led by a 44 percent surge in dairy sales. Overseas sales of logs and aluminum also increased. Export prices rose 53 percent from June last year, according to the ANZ National index.
Exports to China increased 16 percent from a year earlier to NZ$528 million, today’s report showed. China now buys 10 percent of total annual exports and is New Zealand’s second- largest customer after Australia.
Imports rose 2.3 percent from May to a 12-month high of NZ$3.51 billion, led by fuel and machinery, today’s report showed. Vehicle imports were little changed.
Crude oil imports fell 13 percent from May, as prices dropped 14 percent.
From a year earlier, imports fell 1.6 percent because there was a NZ$571 million purchase of aircraft in June last year. Excluding aircraft, imports jumped 17 percent from a year ago, led by fuel and vehicles, the statistics agency said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net
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