Singapore May Require Further `Calibration' of Monetary Policy, IMF Says
Singapore’s inflation is likely to accelerate and policy makers should stay vigilant on the outlook for growth and prices, which may require the “further calibration” of monetary policy, the International Monetary Fund said.
The city-state’s exchange rate regime remains “appropriate,” the board of directors said in a statement concluding a July 16 meeting and released yesterday. In its annual assessment of the country’s economy discussed by the board, the IMF staff said the Singapore dollar appears “somewhat weaker” than its medium-term equilibrium level.
Singapore expanded at a record pace in the first six months of 2010, putting the economy in contention for the world’s fastest-growing this year. The central bank uses the Singapore dollar instead of interest rates to manage inflation, and on April 14 allowed a revaluation and shifted to a stance of gradual appreciation.
“The return to a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar in nominal effective terms is consistent with internal and external stability,” the IMF said. “Directors pointed out that changes in the outlook for growth or inflation warrant vigilance and could call for a further recalibration of monetary policy in the period ahead.”
The IMF said that the currency “would likely strengthen in real effective terms over time” amid an expanding economy and policies to boost productivity growth.
Growth Forecast
The Washington-based IMF expects economic growth of 9.9 percent this year, after a contraction of 1.3 percent in 2009, and expansion of 4.9 percent in 2011.
The fund welcomed the authorities’ move to contain risks in some property markets and urged them to monitor the situation closely.
Singapore’s private home prices surpassed the previous all- time peak achieved in 1996, after they rose 5.3 percent in the second quarter following a 5.6 percent gain in the first three months of the year, according to data released this month from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.
Policies makers should “build on the measures already taken if necessary” in the property market, the IMF staff said in the report.
“Directors also noted that because of the special features of Singapore’s economy, building strong foreign exchange and fiscal reserve buffers has been a central element of economic strategy which has served the country well,” the IMF said. “They considered that, over time, a slower pace of reserve accumulation could be expected given Singapore’s demographic profile going forward.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Sandrine Rastello in Washington at srastello@bloomberg.net;
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