Commodities May Extend Rise as CRB Tops Moving Average: Technical Analysis

Commodities may be headed for their biggest weekly gain since October if a benchmark index closes above its moving average, sending prices to a six-week high, said Mark Schultz at Northstar Commodity Investments LLC.

A close by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials above today’s 50-day moving average of 263.9 may push the gauge up another 1.6 percent to 268, Schultz said. That would mark a 4.7 percent gain for the week and leave the gauge at the highest level since May 5. Before today, the index jumped 3.2 percent this week, led by coffee, energy products and wheat.

“If we can get to a close above the 50-day moving average, that would bode well for commodities in general,” said Schultz, a Northstar vice president in Minneapolis. The index may reach 280 by mid-July, the highest since April 26, should the dollar’s decline continue or adverse weather harm U.S. crops, he said.

Demand for energy, metals and crops may increase as U.S. equities rebound and the dollar declines, Schultz said. As of yesterday, the CRB jumped 6.8 percent since reaching an eight- month low on May 25, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had rallied 6.6 percent from a six-month low on June 8.

“Stocks are up, and that’s helping, and the dollar is correcting down, so that’s helping,” Schultz said. “Anytime we get the economic situation stabilized, that’s always better for commodities demand.”

As of yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, had dropped 3 percent since a 15-month high June 7 to 86.083. The measure may slide to 82.5 by September, the lowest level since May 4, should it close below 86 this week, Schultz said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney McFerron in Chicago at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net.

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