Deutsche Bank May Say First-Quarter Profit Increased on Improved Trading

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, may say profit climbed in the first quarter on debt and equity trading and a rebound in asset and wealth management.

Net income probably rose to 1.33 billion euros ($1.77 billion) from 1.19 billion euros in the year-earlier period, according to the average estimate of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Revenue from equity sales and trading was projected at 866 million euros, while analysts are forecasting fixed-income sales and trading revenue of 3.03 billion. That would come after Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported record debt trading figures in the first quarter.

“Deutsche Bank should be well placed to report strong fixed-income sales and trading numbers,” Jonathan Tyce and Kapilan Pillai of FBR Capital Markets wrote in an April 23 report. The bank’s “private clients and asset management business segments will be solid,” said the London-based analysts, who have a “market perform” rating on the stock.

Deutsche Bank is scheduled to publish earnings tomorrow before the stock market opens. Following is a table of the average estimates and year-earlier and fourth-quarter results as well as the number of analysts surveyed. The subsequent tables show estimates by division. The figures are in millions of euros.

                           Q1 2010   Q1 2009   Q4 2009    Number
                          Expected  Reported  Reported  Analysts

Net interest income          3,042     3,843     2,720        15
before loan-loss provisions
Loan-loss provisions           534       526       560        18
Fee and commission income    2,395     2,179     2,210        14
Trading income               2,362     2,264       568        14
Total revenue before risk    7,817     7,238     5,541        18
Pretax profit                1,957     1,815       756        20
Net income                   1,335     1,185     1,316        20

                           Q1 2010   Q1 2009   Q4 2009    Number
                          Expected  Reported  Reported  Analysts

Corporate Banking & Securities:
Sales and trading, equity      866       275       637        15
Sales and trading, debt      3,029     3,752     1,275        15
and other products
Origination, equity            165        90       149        13
Origination, debt              254       130       230        12
Advisory                       118       129       105        14
Loan products                  356       648       347        13
Total revenue                4,836     4,256     2,861        12
Pretax profit                1,474     1,323       397        17

                           Q1 2010   Q1 2009   Q4 2009    Number
                          Expected  Reported  Reported  Analysts

Global Transaction Banking:
Pretax profit                  194       221       180        14

Private & Business Clients:
Pretax profit                  165       206        47        14

Asset & Wealth Management:
Pretax profit                  111      -173       326        15

Corporate Investments:
Pretax profit                   31       65       -103        15

The following companies participated in the survey: Sabadell, Barclays, Commerzbank, CA Cheuvreux, S&P, Carnegie, Credit Suisse, Evolution, Kepler, Merck Finck, UniCredit, Bernstein, Helvea, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, UBS, KBW, Equinet, WestLB and LBBW.

To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Kirchfeld in Frankfurt at

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