Tracking Fed Target Rate Projections

Most U.S. Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents expect the target federal funds interest rate to increase over the next two years, with a median of 16 forecasts projecting a rate of 2.5 percent by the end of 2016. In 2012 and 2013, many expected that the target rate would increase by the end of this year, with one projection as high 3 percent. Now, most members project that the target rate will not budge above 0.25 percent until next year.

Published June 18, 2014

Jan. 2012

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc

April 2012

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc2

June 2012

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc3

September 2012

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

December 2012

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

March 2013

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

June 2013

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

September 2013

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

December 2013

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

March 2014

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

June 2014

Target federal funds rate at year-end

Percentage of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents selecting a target rate

Fc4

Source: Federal Reserve

GRAPHIC: ALEX TRIBOU / BLOOMBERG VISUAL DATA