From Darth Vader coffee mugs to holiday sweaters with Chewbacca in a Santa hat, “Star Wars” has unleashed a galaxy of goods. Cash registers will ring again when “The Force Awakens” hits theaters on Dec. 18. The film could generate more than $9 billion in revenue for Disney and its partners, from cinemas to TV networks, retailers, and toymakers. Ticket sales alone could reach $2.4 billion, according to Nomura Securities. DVDs, movie downloads, and video games may total hundreds of millions more. In a slow year, more than $2 billion of “Star Wars” merchandise is sold. That could reach $5 billion, estimates Macquarie Research, putting it in a class with “Toy Story 3” for top-grossing franchises. “The buzz on this is tremendous,” said Marcus Theatres CEO Rolando Rodriguez.
Total estimated revenue for “The Force Awakens”
= $1 million
“The Force Awakens” could produce $9.6 billion in revenue from worldwide ticket sales, merchandise, and home entertainment in roughly the first year of release.
That compares with about $9.8 billion for “Toy Story 3,” according to numbers Disney provided in 2013.
Estimated revenue for merchandise from “The Force Awakens” versus 2014 revenue for all of Hasbro...
“The Force Awakens” projected box-office sales, compared with “Episode III: Revenge of the Sith”...
“Revenge of the Sith” ﬁgure from 2005, adjusted for inﬂation
Worldwide home-entertainment estimates for “The Force Awakens” versus “Guardians of the Galaxy” and “Frozen”...
Sources: Macquarie Research analyst Tim Nollen; Nomura analyst Anthony DiClemente; Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter; SNL Kagan, a market research firm.
Methodology: Bloomberg collected forecasts from securities analysts for revenue generated from “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” including ticket sales, merchandise sales, home entertainment, and video games. Figures are for the ﬁrst year after the release of the ﬁlm or game, unless otherwise noted, and are the the highest numbers analysts submitted if they provided a range. Two of the analysts were chosen because they have a Bloomberg Absolute Return Rank (BARR) of 1 for Disney, meaning they have produced the best absolute returns for the stock over the past year.
Notes: Nomura’s $2.4 billion is its most optimistic scenario for global box ofﬁce; the firm’s base prediction is $1.3 billion. Merchandise estimates are based on global retail sales. Disney’s actual share of those revenues is much less.