Overview

Focused on the electricity system, NEO combines the expertise of over 65 country and technology specialists in 11 countries to provide a unique view of how the market will evolve.

What sets NEO apart is that our assessment is focused on the parts of the system that are driving rapid change in markets, grid systems and business models. This includes the cost of wind and solar technology, battery storage, electricity demand and consumer dynamics among others. Get the report.

Cheaper coal and cheaper gas will not derail the transformation and decarbonisation of the world’s power systems. By 2040, zero-emission energy sources will make up 60% of installed capacity. Wind and solar will account for 64% of the 8.6TW of new power generating capacity added worldwide over the next 25 years, and for almost 60% of the $11.4 trillion invested.

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View the infographic
A data visualisation to better understand the scale of the transformation.
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Watch the story unfold
A video to follow the energy system’s evolution to 2024.
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An employee climbs a staircase on the outside of a storage tank at the EON AG gas fired power station on the Isle of Grain, U.K., on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2012. The National Grid Plc and E.ON have worked together to link two plants with twin pipelines, allowing surplus heat from electricity generation at E.ONÕs power station to heat LNG and convert it back to gas. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Steve Holliday

Editorial
How has energy’s long term changed in the last year?
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A charging cable sits attached to a Smart FourTwo electric compact automobile, produced by Daimler AG, as it stands on display at the company's stand on day two of the 84th Geneva International Motor Show in Geneva, Switzerland, on Wednesday, March 5, 2014. The International Geneva Motor Show runs from Mar. 4, and will showcase the latest models from the world's top automakers. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Power findings

8 eye-catching findings from this year’s report

    1. Coal and gas prices stay low. A projected supply glut for both commodities cuts the cost of generating power by burning coal or gas, but will not derail the advance of renewables.
    2. Wind and solar costs drop. These two technologies become the cheapest ways of producing electricity in many countries during the 2020s and in most of the world in the 2030s. Onshore wind costs fall by 41% and solar PV costs fall by 60% by 2040.
    3. Asia-Pacific leads in investment, representing 50% of all new investment worldwide. Despite slower growth in the near-term, China remains the most important center of activity.
    4. Electric car boom. EVs increase global electricity demand by 8% – reflecting BNEF’s forecast that they will represent 35% of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, some 90 times the 2015 figure.
    5. Cheap batteries everywhere. The rise of EVs further squashes the cost of lithium-ion batteries, boosting power storage and working with other flexible capacity to help balance renewables.
    6. A limited ‘transition fuel’ role for gas outside of the US, with only 3% growth in gas demand for power to 2040, and generation peaking in 2027.
    7. Coal’s diverging trajectories. Coal generation plummets in Europe and peaks in 2020 in the US and in 2025 in China; however it increases 7% globally due to rapid growth in other Asian and African emerging markets.
    8. 2⁰C scenario. On top of the forecasted $9.2tn investment in zero-carbon power, an extra $5.3tn is needed by 2040 to prevent power-sector emissions rising above the IPCC’s ‘safe’ limit of 450 parts per million.

See the press release

Wind turbine blades are assembled on the ground before being placed on top of a tower at the Talas del Maciel I wind farm, being developed by Astidey SA with wind turbine equipment supplied by Gamesa Corp. Tecnologica SA, in Flores, Uruguay, on Monday, April 20, 2015. Gamesa, Spain's biggest wind-turbine maker, currently has 150 megawatts of wind equipment in operation in Uruguay and expects to deliver the 25 turbines in November to the Maldonado II wind farm. Photographer: Mariana Greif Etchebehere/Bloomberg

Get the executive summary

BNEF clients can access the full report, its breakdown by technology and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous editions. Go to client page

High-level findings of New Energy Outlook 2016 are available in a free executive summary. Complete this form to receive it today:

FILE PHOTO: Waste gases burn from a torch pipe at the delayed coker unit of the Duna oil refinery operated by MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc in Szazhalombatta, Hungary, on Tuesday, July 9, 2013. Oil extended losses below $60 a barrel amid speculation that OPEC's biggest members will defend market share against U.S. shale producers. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

Meet the authors

Seb-Henbest

Seb Henbest
NEO Lead Author and Head of EMEA
@SebHenbest

elena

Elena Giannakopoulou
Lead Energy Economist
@ElenaGiannakop

Ethan Zindler stands for a photograph at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Summit in New York, U.S., on Monday, April 22, 2013. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Ethan Zindler

Ethan Zindler
Head of Americas
@EthanAll

Justin Wu stands for a photograph at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Summit in New York, U.S., on Monday, April 22, 2013. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Justin Wu

Justin Wu
Head of Asia-Pacific
@wujjus

Jonas-Rooze-highres-cropped

Jonas Rooze
Head of European Power & Carbon
@JonasRooze

Jenny Chase stands for a photograph at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Summit in New York, U.S., on Monday, April 22, 2013. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Jenny Chase

Jenny Chase
Head of Solar
@solar_chase

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2014. Photographer: Jason Alden 

Photographer: Jason Alden
www.jasonalden.com
0781 063 1642

David Hostert
Head of Wind
@DHostert

Jerry Van Houten-cropped2

Jerry Van Houten
Lead NEO Modeller
@jerryvanhouten

In close collaboration with:

Lilian Alves, Kobad Bhavnagri, Hugh Bromley, Richard Chatterton, Monne Depraetere, Andreas Gandolfo, Logan Goldie-Scot, Amy Grace, Tom Harries, Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, Shantanu Jaiswal, Natalie Keating, Miho Kurosaki, Matthias Kimmel, Maggie Kuang, Sophie Lu, Angus McCrone, Colin McKerracherLuke Mills, Will Nelson, Leonard Quong, Colleen Regan, Tom Rowlands-Rees, Ashish Sethia, James Sprinz, Nicholas Steckler, Andrew Turner, Ana Verena Lima and many other analysts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s 14 offices around the world

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