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Bloomberg Global Poll: Worst Over in Global Poll Pointing to

September 21, 2010

  Bloomberg Global Poll: Worst Over in Global Poll Pointing to Reduced Market

Three of Five Investors Say the Economy has Stabilized Two Years after Fall of
              Lehman Brothers; One in Six Say Economy Expanding

 More than Three-Quarters of Respondents See Risk that Eurozone May Dissolve

Business Wire

NEW YORK -- September 21, 2010

Three out of five global investors (59%) say the world economy has weathered
the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.

Few believe the economy is recovering, with only one in six of those surveyed
(17%) describing it as expanding, according to a global quarterly poll of
1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Forty-one
percent aren’t convinced the financial situation is stable and say further
turbulence is likely.

There are still danger spots, including the threat of government defaults,
respondents say. Over the last three months, the percentage of those who say
it’s likely Ireland will default more than doubled to 37 percent, according to
the poll, conducted on Sept. 16-17. Still, a majority see this as unlikely.

The full story is online at:

Investors are responding to the economic environment by managing their money
conservatively, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or
minus 2.6 percentage points. More than 40 percent are still hunkering down,
while one in three (34%) are taking more risks. The rest say they are getting
back to normal. Those percentages were little changed from the last poll in

Europe is seen as a weak link in the world economy. More than three-quarters
of those surveyed (77%) see a risk that the eurozone may dissolve eventually,
and more than 20 percent of those describe such a threat as looming. That’s a
more pessimistic take than in June, when a majority said the currency union
would remain intact.

European investors are the most optimistic about the chances of avoiding a
breakup of the eurozone; U.S. investors the least.

Greece is still seen as the country most likely to default on its debt, with
just over two-thirds of investors surveyed (67%) seeing that as probable.
That’s down from the 73 percent who said they felt that way in June.

Among asset classes, commodities have gained the most in popularity among
investors since the last poll. About one in three of those surveyed (32%) said
commodities will offer the highest return over the next year. In June, 23
percent said that.

Stocks are still seen as the number one investment over the next year, with 36
percent of those contacted saying equities will offer the highest return,
little changed from June.

Almost half of investors surveyed (49%) see the Standard & Poor’s 500 index
rising over the next six months, versus 28 percent who predict it will fall.
Pluralities of more than 35 percent forecast that the Euro Stoxx 50 Index and
FTSE index will be higher in six months time.

The S&P index has risen almost 2.5 percent this year. The Euro Stoxx 50 index
has fallen 5.5 percent, while the FTSE 100 Index has risen 3.5 percent.

Government bonds are seen as the worst investment for the coming year. Almost
half of those polled (49%) said they felt that way, up from 36 percent in

Real estate also fared poorly in the poll, with one in four investors (24%)
saying that would be the asset class with the worst return in the coming year.

To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll questions, click on the
link above.


Kristin Swenson, 212-617-4264