After this morning’s report, here are four unfortunate facts about the job market.
1) Manufacturing jobs are falling at their fastest rate since 1946, down -12.2% over the past year.
2) Private sector jobs outside of manufacturing are also falling at their fastest rate since 1946, down -4.0% over the past year.
3) Manufacturing jobs are falling much faster than the rest of the private sector. In fact, the ‘excess’ job decline in manufacturing (the difference between -12.2% and -4.0%) is the largest since 1975.
4) The ten-year job growth in the private sector is down to only 559K jobs. At this rate, we will hit zero ten-year private job growth next month or the month after.
One important question is whether there is a ‘floor’ for manufacturing jobs. So far, we haven’t seen one. Over the past three months, manufacturing jobs have been falling at a -13.6% annual rate.
I would say that the evisceration of U.S. manufacturing may be our single biggest nonfinancial problem right now. I’m currently examining the extent to which this can be tied to trade.