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Roth Capital Cuts Cognos to Neutral

Roth Capital cut its investment opinion on Cognos (COGN) to neutral from buy.

Analyst Nate Schneiderman said he thinks it's time to get out of positions, as the company's three year bullish history is ending. The analyst noted premarket pressure is no surprise as the company missed its second quarter license revenue for the second quarter in a row, suggesting to him that sales-execution challenges persist. He thinks the company's third quarter, and fourth quarter license guidance is unrealistic; and the aggressive guidance adds risk to the stock price. He sees a likely tug-of-war in the stock between sellers and buyers as controversy over the company's credibility plays out. He cut his target to $40 from $45. He also moved his third quarter earnings per share estimate to $0.38 from $0.39 on lower revenue of $231 million, and his $1.57 fiscal year 2006 (ending February) to $1.53.

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