By Paul Cherney This is the week of the quarterly expiration of futures (formerly known as the Triple Witch).
So far, there is no evidence to doubt last Friday's (Sept. 10) intraday signal and expectations for the Nasdaq to move a little higher and establish a close at least in the next layer of resistance which is 1,912-1,933.03. I am still expecting higher closes this week.
The smallest closing gain seen by the Nasdaq during the first 6 trading days after the signals I referenced in last Friday's column was +1.6%; for the current market that would equate to a Nasdaq close of 1,924. That should happen by Friday of this week or Monday of next week.
I would tend to doubt that this could happen if the CBOE volatility index, or VXO, started a move above the 14.04 level (chart observation).
The chart pattern I was expecting to see today did not really unfold as small losses on Tuesday would have been a set-up for opening selling on Wednesday and then an intraday reversal.
Overall, technical measures based on end-of-day data retain a positive bias and until something else occurs (technically) I have to assume higher closes are likely.
support is 1,910-1,901.77, then 1,896-1,876.
S&P 500 support is 1,123-1,117, which overlaps 1,118-1,113, making the 1,118-1,117 area a focus of support. Next support is 1,110-1,094.
The S&P 500 is testing immediate
resistance at 1,123-1,130.33. This year's June price action established more formidable resistance in the 1,129-1,146.34 area, with a focus of resistance 1,132-1,140.
Immediate resistance for the Nasdaq is 1,912-1,933.03; inside this area, resistance thickens with prints of 1,922 and higher. The next area of well-defined resistance is prints of 1,960 and higher. Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's