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Thomas Weisel Ups Adobe Estimates

Thomas Weisel raised its estimates on Adobe Systems (ADBE).

Analyst Keith Gay says better-than-expected third-quarter guidance of 36 cents to 41 cents earnings per share on revenues of $380 million to $400 million stems from strength in Creative Suite and Acrobat products in all major geographic markets. He says this is consistent with his thesis that Creative Suite is driving a longer upgrade cycle.

Gay says the Creative Suite penetration cycle can last at least two more quarters (Adobe is now 2.5 quarters into the cycle), a longer "tail" than the typical Photoshop upgrade cycle of one or two quarters. He raised the 33 cents third-quarter earnings per share estimate to 38 cents, upped the 34 cents fourth-quarter estimate to 36 cents, upped the $1.61 fiscal 2004 (Nov) estimate to $1.68, and raised the $1.72 fiscal 2005 estimate to $1.76.

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