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Dollar Is Lower

The battered poor dollar is licking its wounds, consolidating losses below the o/n lows vs the majors. Another light data slate today, with US asset mkts starting on a mixed footing, with 10-yr Tsy yield at 4.25% and S&P futs flat after a 5-day rally. EUR pulling back from 1.1837 overnight high amid spec/model fund sellers heard. But USD bulls need to push below 1.17 to incite a meaningful EUR retreat. Upside target remains towards 1.1929 - multi-year high from June 16. Meanwhile, USD-JPY still trading below 110 despite warnings from Japanese officials, seeing a low of 109.42 overnight. Talk of sell-stops below 109.20 from spec/model types fishing for an oversold bottom near-term as a 5 JPY run in two weeks could be ripe for a BoJ-led squeeze. The moves higher in EUR and JPY has pushed the Finex USD index marginally below its June and 2003 lows, with a weekly close below then targeting the Oct 1998 bottom around 90.60. Some USD consolidation would be in order but speculation remains that the Bush govt wants chiefly a lower USD-Asia bloc to stem the growing trade gap and avoid more harmful protectionist calls in Congress.

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