Thomas Weisel downgraded Autodesk (ADSK) to outperform.
Analyst Keith Gay says first-quarter performance was above expectations, but guidance was flat, reflecting management caution and SARS concerns. He says second-quarter estimates are coming down, so the company isn't getting the earnings per share upside he had hoped for following the AutoCAD release.
Gay notes the year is looking increasingly back-end loaded, resulting in limited visibility on ramp in the second half of the year. He also says Autodesk is trading near its peak historical p-e.
Gay sees 51 cents fiscal 2004 (Jan.) earnings per share, and 80 cents for fiscal 2005. He sees $875 million in fiscal 2004 revenue, and $927.5 million for fiscal 2005.